GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers couldn’t be facing the Los Angeles Rams at a better time. Their elite receivers are on injured reserve. Their standout tight end is on the physically unable to perform list. Two starting offensive linemen are on injured reserve.
However, Matthew Stafford is the Rams’ quarterback, the Packers will be short of playmakers, as well, and they’ll be playing on the West Coast.
Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose on Sunday.
1. Kyren Williams
A fifth-round pick in 2022, Rams running back Kyren Williams last year blossomed into one of the top running backs in the NFL.
In only 12 games, he rushed for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns, good for a league-high 95.3 rushing yards per game. He averaged 5.0 yards per carry and caught 32 passes. He ranked ninth with 3.27 yards after contact per carry and 11th with 51 forced missed tackles, according to Pro Football Focus.
Not only did the Rams not have Matthew Stafford for last year’s game at Lambeau Field, Williams was on injured reserve with an ankle injury.
Williams enters this game with a touchdown in seven consecutive games and 100-plus scrimmage yards and a touchdown in five consecutive home games.
“Kyren Williams, he’s one of the toughest runners in the league, in my opinion,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “I love his versatility, his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. I just think he’s tough in between the tackles. He’s a downhill, one-cut guy but he can run you over, too.
“Got a lot of respect for him and I’ve watched quite a bit of their tape every week. He’s definitely a problem.”
Green Bay’s long-standing problems stopping the run are well known. However, it did relatively well in keeping Aaron Jones to less than 100 rushing yards and out of the end zone last week. It is a solid 12th with 4.33 yards allowed per carry.
With the state of the Rams’ receiver corps, logic would dictate Rams coach Sean McVay trying to get Williams established to keep them in good down-and-distance situations and to open up some play-action passes.
“I think Williams is a great player,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “He does a great job of pressing and getting guys to be out of their gaps. The main thing with us is making sure we have our integrity in our gaps.
“Matthew Stafford, he does a great job with his cadence and all that stuff. They try to get on you quick with quick snaps, get you off-balance. We’ve got to do a good job with tempo and make sure they get negative plays so we can slow that stuff down.”
2. Underrated Pass Rush
Sometimes, the stats don’t tell the full story. Following the retirement of the legendary Aaron Donald, the Rams enter this game ranked 22nd in sack percentage.
That doesn’t mean their pass rush has been bad, though.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Rams are No. 1 in the NFL in pressure rate at 41.3 percent.
“They do a good job in particular on third down getting pressure [on] the quarterbacks the last few games,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “They’ve really come into finding their right rush package that they like.
“They do a good job with picks and twists, bringing five. Their DBs will get on the receivers, play some tight coverage, make it hard to find some windows. We’ve got to do a good job getting open, we’ve got to do a good job blocking those twists that they run up front because they’ve had some success getting after the quarterback on third down.”
Last week, Jordan Love faced a lot of pressure from the Vikings’ front and didn’t handle it well. Just because Love played last week and was full participation at practice on Thursday and Friday this week doesn’t mean he’s 100 percent healthy and fully capable of getting out of harm’s way.
Rams first-round pick Jared Verse leads the pass rush. While he has only one sack, he is second in the NFL in pass-rush win rate. Fellow edge rusher Byron Young, who has two sacks this season, had two sacks and a forced fumble against the Packers last year.
“Jared’s definitely shown up on tape,” LaFleur said. “He’s twitchy, he’s violent and he’s relentless. And I think that’s what you’re looking for in those guys. I think he’s going to continue to develop, and I would expect him to be a very, very good player for a long time in this league.”
3. West Coast Blues
Under LaFleur, the Packers are 2-5 in West Coast games. One of the victories came in 2020 against 49ers backup quarterback Nick Mullens. Throw in an international flight to London to face the Giants in 2022 and an intercontinental trip to Brazil to face the Eagles this year, the Packers have not fared well after long trips.
The Rams don’t have much of a homefield advantage from a butts-in-seats perspective. The 49ers took over SoFi Stadium in Week 3 and there’s certain to be a heavy Packers presence on Sunday.
This season, the Rams are 0-3 on the road but 1-0 at home, with the victory a vintage come-from-behind effort by Stafford to shock the 49ers. In his last seven home starts, Stafford is 6-1 with 11 touchdowns, two interceptions and a 101.3 passer rating.
Rushing the immobile Stafford will be critical. The Packers’ dormant pass rush, which couldn’t have been more feeble as the Vikings raced to a 28-0 lead last week, must show up on time against a Rams offensive line with two starters on injured reserve. This would be a fine time for Rashan Gary (one sack) and Clark (zero sacks) to find their form.
“First-ballot Hall of Famer if you ask me,” defensive line coach Jason Rebrovich said of Stafford. “I think that the mobility thing will allow us to be able to hopefully win some more one-on-ones and keep Stafford in the pocket a little bit more.
“But he’s an unbelievable quarterback. He throws the ball all over the grass, he’s got great arm strength. So, we got our hands full, regardless of if he’s a non-mobilish quarterback or not. He’s one of the elite quarterbacks in the National Football League that we got to go and affect him when we have those opportunities.”
