There’s still no indication on how much of a splash the Seattle Mariners might make in the offseason.
Team owner/chairman John Stanton has already said the team won’t be big spenders in free agency. But that hasn’t stopped the team from being linked to some of the biggest names in free agency and notable trade targets.
One free agent the club is rumored to have interest in wouldn’t cost a lot of money, but his ripple effect could still have negative effects in Seattle.
Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki is expected to be posted for the 2025 signing period by Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chiba Lotte Marines. He’s expected to go to sign with either the Los Angeles Dodgers or San Diego Padres. But the Mariners are reportedly preparing a pitch to sign him, per reports.
Sasaki’s countryman and fellow pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto earned a record-breaking deal from the Dodgers last offseason. But unlike Yamamoto, Sasaki is still under 25 years of age, meaning that he would have to sign a minor league deal (likely with a hefty signing bonus) and would count towards the international signing pool.
That reason is why the Marines will likely wait until the 2025 signing period to post him so they can get the biggest return possible. But if Seattle does end up signing the 23 year-old pitcher, it would likely have dire consequences for the rest of its potential international signings.
The Mariners have the maximum amount of money available in the 2025 international pool ($7.6 million). Most, if not all, of that money would go to Sasaki if he comes to the Pacific Northwest. That would leave several international free agents in the wind.
Seattle has been rumored be the suitors for MLB Pipeline’s No. 5 2025 international prospect Yorger Bautista and No. 18 international prospect Kendry Martinez. The rumors about Martinez have come in the last month while the Mariners have been tied to Bautista since Jan. 2024.
The scenario is a simple, if not discouraging one. If Sasaki is in, Martinez and Bautista are likely out.
An article published by the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal on Tuesday points out the fact that, even though teams can’t sign international players until they’re at least 16 years-old, most teams negotiate with the teenage international athletes before then. Even though that’s not technically legal per MLB rules.
The same article highlighted the ripple that would happen for the players linked to the squad that manages to sign Sasaki:
(The) players will likely need to accept reduced bonuses from other teams, if they can find openings at all. This could create a ripple effect if players sign with new clubs who then have to break agreements they had previously made in order to fit the new deals into their bonus pool.
Teams are allowed to trade for up to 60% of the original allotment of international money, which would be $4.56 million. Theoretically, Seattle could sign Sasaki and make moves to add that $4.56 million and sign either Bautista or Martinez (likely the former). But the club would still miss out on at least one of the two top 20 international players, assuming they wouldn’t have signed somewhere else by the time the Mariners make the deal.
And that would create the ripple effect Rosenthal mentions of other clubs have to renege on agreements with other players.
Now, in the same breath, if the choice is signing Sasaki and having him make an immediate impact; or signing Bautista and Martinez hoping they make the major leagues in 5-6 years, the choice is clearly the former. But it’s still an unfortunate scenario all the way around.
The Mariners have been very hands-on and successful with their international scouting. Three of their top prospects, Lazaro Montes, Michael Arroyo and Felnin Celesten, are international signings.
If Seattle does sign Sasaki, one would have to think that the organization would do everything in its power to mitigate the after-effects the deal would have on its other potential international players. But the damage would be nearly impossible to completely contain.
And it’s unfortunate that signing an athlete the caliber of Sasaki could come at the expense of young athletes looking to take the first steps in accomplishing their major league dreams.
