Re-examining what a deal for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could look like, and how the Mariners could solve their first base problem after waiving Ty France
In a rather surprising move, the Seattle Mariners outrighted a fan favorite, Ty France, Monday morning. The 30-year-old first baseman enjoyed a breakout season in 2021 and continued it with an All-Star campaign in 2022. Since then, France has really struggled to capture that same level of play. In 88 games in 2024, France was slashing .223/.312/.350 with just eight home runs.
That lack of production has contributed to one of the worst offenses in baseball. It isn’t just Ty France that is struggling, as a lot of the key names in the lineup are just not producing. Perhaps this is the first of many bold moves that the team could consider with many veterans just not living up to their potential. With the recent injuries to Julio Rodriguez and JP Crawford, the time to act is now for Jerry Dipoto.
As the Ty France era draws to a close, the Mariners will need to look forward and explore their options for addressing the offense and the first base position. After ranking the top first base options around the league, we propose a hypothetical trade that could net the Mariners one of the best first basemen and hitters in the game.
A blockbuster trade proposal lands Vladimir Guerrero Jr in Seattle
In this mock trade, the Seattle Mariners get an elite first baseman and a very solid reliever. Make no mistake, the prize and reason this trade goes down is because the Mariners add the offensive prowess of Vlad. Garcia has been solid this year however with a 2.48 ERA across 29 innings and impressive numbers (12.4 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9). Garcia instantly becomes the bridge from the Stanek and Santos types to Andres Munoz. He is a free agent at the end of the year and with the Blue Jays 9.5 games out of the playoffs, they should sell their rental pieces.
Vlad is arguably the best bat that could be available this year and he is a very good one. The 25-year-old is slashing .292/.362/.473 with 16 home runs. That and his solid 9.6% walk rate and 16.1% strikeout rate would fit perfectly in the Mariners lineup. He becomes the team’s best hitter and adds some consistency to a lineup that really lacks it.
In this deal, the Mariners will send their #2 (Harry Ford), #9 (Arroyo), #11 (Morales), and their #26 (Suisbel) prospects to the Blue Jays, all prospect rankings according to MLB Pipeline.
Ford and Arroyo are the top prospects carrying this package. Ford is a former first round pick that has serious athleticism and upside. The 21-year-old catcher is athletic enough to play both corner outfield spots as well as second and third base if he is to move out from behind the dish. Ford is a solid catcher who will be a solid hitter with an elite on-base ability and should maintain 20 home run power.
Arroyo is sort of a wild card, and his emergence could be similar to that of Edwin Arroyo when the Mariners sent him to Cincinnati. The 5’8, 19-year-old infielder always possessed a solid hit tool, but a surge in power has placed him in a different tier of prospects. After a recent promotion to High-A Everett, Arroyo is still hitting .273/.401/.488 with 14 home runs in 80 games. Arroyo should start to push into some top 100 prospect rankings and is going to be a hot commodity at this year’s deadline.
Morales offers the Blue Jays a high floor starter who has made a lot of progress this year. The former third round pick who was offered over-slot money to sign him away from Vanderbilt has shown a bit more strikeout ability while continuing his ability to limit walks. Just reaching Double-A Arkansas, Morales is likely to debut later in 2025 or sometime in 2026 giving the Blue Jays a serviceable number four or five starter when all of their expensive starting pitchers’ contracts expire.
Luis Suisbel is a lesser-known prospect, but someone that has just hit at every level. A switch-hitter, Suisbel is dominating Modesto this year as a 21-year-old with a .271/.354/.438 slash line and 10 home runs. He could play his way into an everyday role as a corner infielder (though likely to stick at first base), or a solid bench bat.
This trade is an aggressive one for both sides but could pay huge dividends for a pair of rivals. The Mariners get their elite bat and a solid high leverage reliever to pair with Andres Munoz, while the Blue Jays get a couple of high-end prospects that could become really good everyday bats, a solid back-end starter, and a lottery ticket that has some offensive upside. This trade works for both sides and with the recent struggles for both teams, it is something they should explore.
