Lack of First Round Picks Could Dramatically Alter Hogs’ Future

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — When the season began, the biggest question surrounding the Arkansas basketball team was how many first round picks would there be at the end of the season.

The initial thought was four to five with freshmen Boogie Fland, Karter Knox, and Billy Richmond joining veterans Jonas Aidoo and possibly DJ Wagner as first round picks. However, that’s not how it’s worked out, which makes the construction of next year’s team a much different consideration.

Razorbacks coach John Calipari famously sits down and talks to players about their futures, and tells even the ones who want to stay, if they are projected to go in the first round, they had better have a good reason to stay. Then, typically, he refuses to renew their scholarship if they don’t go.

But things are different this year. Calipari no longer has a single player projected to go in the first round. And while his philosophy stems from a player at a previous job being drafted before developing a serious medical condition a few years later that ended his career, players are no longer losing out on money by staying in school.

Before it was still easy to convince players to leave even for the second round because they were going to get a little over $1 million to $2 million per year over four years. However, with NIL and the addition of revenue sharing, that’s not much of a pay raise and may not be a raise at all in some circumstances.

So, players can successfully argue they can stay with little loss of income for the family and take the chance their value will go way up in the draft with another year, thus generating a lot more contract money in the long run.

Right now, Adou Thiero, projected to go No. 33, is the highest Razorback on the board. Normally that might be high enough to risk staying in the draft, but his stock has slipped a little since the projections came out.

If all four Hogs slated to go in the draft come back (Thiero #33, Fland #45, Knox #46, Ivisic #59), Arkansas could be set for a super team that would have the ingredients to dominate. The practices alone would be something to behold.

Instead of struggling to have enough warm bodies to practice, Calipari will potentially oversee one of the most competitive five-on-five sessions ever. Grizzled vets in Wagner, Thiero and Ivisic, joining a more mature Knox and Richmond against Fland, Darius Acuff, Isaiah Sealy, Maleek Thomas, and either Nate Ament or Trevon Brazil on the other side would be worth the price of admission.

Playing that roster would be an absolute nightmare for SEC teams. Calipari would have the option to sub a full five and see little to no drop-off while running teams ragged.

If Ivisic packs on 5-10 pounds of muscle and continues to develop his inside game, the task to hold down the Razorbacks becomes even more daunting. Yes, it will hurt Calipari’s pride if he can’t get a player into the first round of the NBA draft this year, but it may be best for all parties involved.

The first round would be historically loaded with Arkansas players next year, plus, it should be a historic season also.

And most important, no one has to take part in it while worrying about their family not being able to keep the lights on or have food on the table. For once, fans disenfranchised by NIL will have good reason to sing it’s praise, a long with the coach who manages it all.