Tennessee’s physicality will be problem for Alabama Basketball unless it does three things

Alabama Basketball is 3.5-points underdog Saturday afternoon in Knoxville. That gap comes from the Vols having more than a 3.5-pint advantage by playing in the Thompson/Boling Arena. Otherwise oddsmakers must believe the two teams are nearly equal.

Given the outcome of the game will have much to do with an NCAA Tournament 1-seed, Tennessee’s home crowd might be at an even higher fever-pitch than normal.

The Crimson Tide will face the heat of the orange crowd and the heat of college basketball’s most efficient defense, as calculated by Ken Pomeroy.

Nate Oats knows exactly what his team will face when it has the ball, “They’re physical, they get into you. They make cutting hard, they guard the ball well. We like to get in the paint, draw help, spray the ball. They don’t necessarily need help all the time because they’re so physical on the ball. Then our off-ball cutting, they kind of stand you up… They’re tough, they’re physical. We’re gonna have to handle their physicality here a lot better than we did last year and take care of the ball.”

Tennessee beat Alabama by 20 points last January in Knoxville. The Vols do not match Alabama’s offensive efficiency, but they don’t necessarily need to because of defense. Alabama’s super efficient offense has averaged only 67 points in its last three games in Knoxville. That output will not be enough on Saturday.

How Alabama Basketball can beat Tennessee

The Vols are No. 3 among all Division 1 teams in three-point defense, allowing only 27.6% success. Alabama struggled from outside the arc against Auburn, making just 19.2% of its threes. In the three games since the Auburn loss, Alabama has made threes at an impressive 42.9% pace. The use of three guard sets, with Mark Sears off the ball has worked wonderfully. Alabama can use the same approach against the Vols and it should not take a blistering 40%-plus average to gain a win.

Also key to Alabama Basketball is that it must neutralize a turnover advantage for Tennessee. The Vols are on a three game winning streak against the Crimson Tide. In the three losses, Alabama has turned the ball over 51 times to just 21 turnovers for Tennessee. A vast difference in tempo between the two teams is one reason. Alabama can lose a turnover battle on Saturday, but it can’t afford to lose badly.

A third key is whether either team can gain an early edge. Both teams have struggled with slow starts. According to Ryan Schumpert of Rocky Top Insider, the Vols have struggled early in more home games than road games. Schumpert is confident that with a halftime lead, the Vols will win. Alabama cannot afford a sizable early scoring deficit.

If the three keys don’t go well for the Crimson Tide, ESPN will be right to give Alabama a 35.1% probability of winning.

Note: Team stats provided by Sports Reference