ESPN’s Lunardi Increases Hogs’ Odds to Reach NCAA Tourney
Same song, fourth verse. Problem is, the Razorbacks didn’t complete any of the first three verses. Tonight, they get another try.
In those first three, they made mostly sweet music all the way to the final few lines. Then, sour notes, missed words, whatever you wish to call it, but a failure to finish with a flourish.
Verse four is on the program tonight for coach John Calipari’s Arkansas team. In the last five games, it’s the fourth opportunity for a monumental and much-needed victory.
It’s also the best chance to notch that elusive triumph. Previous possibilities came against a who’s who in the AP national rankings: No. 4 Alabama, No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 1 Auburn.
The Hogs lost at home by four to ‘Bama, by eight at A&M after being tied with nine minutes left, and by seven at Auburn after leading with three minutes on the clock.
Frustration. Disappointment. Regret. But that could all change tonight if the Razorbacks can knock off the No. 15 Missouri Tigers.
If the Hogs can prevail on a Saturday night in Bud Walton Arena, they’ll immediately have thrust one big hoof inside the door to the Big Dance.
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi actually improved the Hogs’ chances of making the NCAA Tournament following the hard-fought loss at Auburn.
He moved Arkansas from a No. 12 seed to an 11, still grouped as the “Last Four In,” but up one spot in that quartet. Lunardi still has the Hogs ticketed for one of the play-in games in Dayton, Ohio, against Virginia Commonwealth.
Beating Missouri will be difficult but here’s three reasons why it’ll happen:
* It’s a rematch and Arkansas is out for revenge.
* Mizzou’s ‘Bama beatdown leads to a letdown.
* A special ceremony will amp the sellout crowd.
At halftime, Arkansas’ 1990 Final Four team will be honored. Having the likes of the Razorbacks’ all-time leading scorer Todd Day in the house just might be worth a few extra hoops for the home team.
Whether Missouri coach Dennis Gates’ team plays at less than full throttle or peak efficiency remains to be seen but the 110-98 home win against Alabama likely sapped some emotion and focus from the last two days of practice.
Mizzou is 20-6, winner of three straight and tied for fourth in the SEC at 9-6 with A&M. The Hogs are 15-11, 4-9 and desperate for four wins with only five game left on the schedule.
ESPN Bubble Watch, which obviously does not compare notes with Lunardi, gives Arkansas a 32% chance of reaching the tourney. The article has 30 teams on the bubble, saying nine should be in the tourney and 21 have work to do. That “work” group includes the Hogs.
The Razorbacks are No. 41 in NET rankings, the model used by the NCAA Selection Committee. They’re 12th in the SEC in NET, ahead of other bubble teams Vanderbilt (44th) and Oklahoma (53rd), a good sign but, again, work remains.
ESPN Bubble Watch said this: “Despite a gallant effort, Arkansas came up short on the road at the consensus No. 1 team in the country, Auburn.
“A win would have represented a 20-point jump in the Razorbacks’ tourney odds in the ESPN model. Instead, they continue to hover in the 30% range, although the composite odds have them closer to 40%.
“No matter how you slice it, the Hogs are 4-9 in the toughest conference in college basketball, ranking 12th in the SEC in NET. With a pair of home games on the horizon against Missouri and Texas, a couple of wins would go a long way for a team that is in the top-40-ish range in predictive metrics and outside of the top 50 in each résumé metric.”
