Josh Pate Breaks Down Oregon Versus Ohio State in Rose Bowl Rematch

Tuesday CBS/247 Sports podcast host Josh Pate of The Josh Pate Show asked the essential question.

He said, “How does a team who played the way Ohio State did against Tennessee ever get beat?”

Since it’s a show and the question was a rhetorical device, he immediately supplied his own answer. “Well, it’s because, you get different versions of a team every week,” he said.

That’s certainly been true of the Buckeyes, who were dominant against Tennessee over the winter solstice, mired in lethargy against Michigan to end the regular season, fierce and indomitable versus Indiana, sluggish and tentative against Penn State, a juggernaut in September, prone to penalties, errors and gaffes versus the Ducks on October 12th.

Pate elaborated. “But I don’t think Ohio State is gonna play poorly at all– I think they’re going to play phenomenally. I just think Oregon is that good.”

“So I am slightly leaning Oregon to win this game. They would cover in the aggregate. I’m not necessarily betting it because I think there’s better value out there but I think Dan Lanning and Oregon with more weeks to prepare are going to sit out there, bring them to Pasadena. If one or two quarterback mistakes on the side of Ohio State ends up being the difference in this game.”

Dillon Gabriel is the difference. Will Howard is a fine college quarterback who’s done a good job managing a sensational supporting cast as the game manager for the Buckeyes. Yet he’s made a fundamental error in his approach to a big game. He’s talking up the revenge angle, replaying the first one in his mind, dwelling on miscues, mistakes and quibbles with reality. All of that is self-defeating.

Listen to Oregon’s sixth-year quarterback talk to Brenna Greene of KOIN News in the hours before the game. He’s confident, playful and relaxed. It’s a much better state of mind for playing your best under pressure. Gabriel will be sunny and locked in. That’s infectious. Revenge is a dish best served cold, and the Buckeyes are running a little too hot. It’s not something you can sustain for a month.

The quarterbacks are the difference. Gabriel’s just a little more fluid and resourceful. He’s a better leader. He’ll be locked in, playing on real grass in the sunshine. Will Howard is trying to turn back time and undo the past, and that makes the moment too big.