Analysis: ‘Battle-tested’ BYU will face an underseeded VCU team in first round of NCAA Tournament

BYU basketball coach Kevin Young and super senior Trevin Knell both used the same phrase Sunday afternoon to describe why they are confident that the Cougars can end their victory drought in the NCAA Tournament and advance past the first round this year.

Having survived the gantlet known as the Big 12 with a 14-6 record in league play and a run to the conference tournament semifinals last week, AP No. 17-ranked BYU is “battle-tested” — they believe — and ready to get a win in March Madness for the first time since 2012 when it edged Iona 78-72 in a First Four game in Dayton, Ohio.

What the coach and sixth-year player didn’t say was that sixth-seeded BYU was perhaps underseeded this year amid some hopes that it would land a 5 seed. That’s good, because the selection committee got it mostly right for one of the rare times when the Cougars are involved.

“Just excited regardless of what seed we got,” Young said Sunday night in a Zoom meeting with reporters.

Should BYU have been a 5 seed? Well, if Iowa State got a 3 and will be missing arguably its best player — Keshon Gilbert was ruled out Sunday by head coach TJ Otzelberger — and Arizona got a 4 seed, then maybe BYU deserved a 5.

After all, BYU beat both those teams on their own floors.

From this vantage point, however, what the committee whiffed on was assigning BYU’s first-round opponent, Atlantic 10 champion VCU, its No. 11 seed. A little bit of quick research shows that the Rams (28-6) may have deserved better than that.

The Cougars (24-9) and VCU, which is coached by former Utah State coach Ryan Odom and led by former Aggie standout Max Shulga, the conference’s player of the year, square off at approximately 2:05 p.m. on Thursday at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

Brad Nessler and Brendan Haywood will be on the call on TNT.

So BYU caught a little break by playing in Denver — a one-hour flight over the Rockies from Provo — which was probably its first choice when it became apparent that its destination due to the school’s no Sunday play rule would be either there, Lexington, Kentucky; Wichita, Kansas; or Providence, Rhode Island.

“I like that we are in Denver,” Young said. “I like the fact that we are close to home. That is certainly where I kinda had my eye. That was certainly something I was happy about.”

The Cougars didn’t catch a break with their first-round opponent, however. Virginia Commonwealth is 18-2 in its last 20 games and the best team in the country in effective field goal percentage.

While they aren’t at Big 12 champion and No. 1 seed Houston’s level, the Rams can play some defense, and hard-nosed, aggressive defense — especially on the perimeter — has been known to give BYU fits this year, at times.

At other times, such as the wins at nationally ranked Iowa State and Arizona, not so much.

“We have been able to have some big scoring nights against some of the best defensive teams in the country. I think Houston is in kind of a class of their own, honestly,” Young said.

After Seth Davis said on the CBS Selection Show that “I actually think BYU has enough to get to the Elite Eight — that’s what I am calling,” Young and Knell expressed some similar confidence, albeit acknowledging that getting past VCU won’t be easy.

If the Cougars advance, they will face either No. 3 seed Wisconsin (26-9) or No. 14 seed Montana (25-9) on Saturday. If the Cougars reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2011 — they emerged out of Denver that year, coincidentally — they will play in the East Regional in Newark, New Jersey.

The No. 1 seed in the East is Duke; the No. 2 seed is Alabama.

“I was actually telling my wife (Tatum) and a lot of my teammates that this year just feels different,” Knell said. “… I am pumped. This is my last time playing in March Madness, so it is a dream come true to be back at this stage.”

VCU is just not a dream opponent for the Cougars, who have lost five straight NCAA Tournament games. It is BYU’s third-straight Big Dance appearance as a No. 6 seed, and don’t forget that last year it also faced the A-10 champion, Duquesne, and was upset 71-67 in Omaha, Nebraska.

BYU, which has won 13 of its last 16 games, opened as a 3.5-point favorite.

Why should the Rams be seeded higher? They are No. 31 in the NCAA’s primary sorting tool, the NET rankings, and No. 30 in KenPom. BYU is No. 24 in both.

BYU got a No. 21 overall seed from the NCAA and is the highest-rated No. 6 seed; the other No. 6 seeds are Ole Miss, Illinois and Missouri. That’s pretty good company.

Despite being No. 31 in the NET, VCU is the No. 45 overall seed. That’s too low, though the Rams were widely projected to get an 11 seed.

“They are well-coached, and I think we are a really good offensive, really good defensive team and I am excited to get this matchup underway,” said Knell, who played against Utah State when Odom and Shulga were there.

Obviously, BYU played a tougher schedule; the Cougars are 8-7 in Quad 1 games, while VCU is 2-1 in Quad 1 games and was 1-1 against NCAA Tournament teams, having defeated Mountain West champ Colorado State at a neutral site and lost at New Mexico.

Shulga and Joe Bamisile are the Rams’ leading scorers, both averaging around 15.0 ppg.

“I heard they are really good at defense, so it is going to be a great matchup,” Knell said, “but I feel like we are battle-tested just with our confidence (playing) in the Big 12.”

This will be BYU’s 32nd overall appearance in the Big Dance, and another chance to reach its first Final Four; BYU has the most NCAA appearances without making a Final Four, 31, followed by Xavier (29) and Missouri (28).

What gives Young hope that this could be the year?

“Just the guys we have in our locker room, and the confidence that they have and just how we have been playing,” he said. “We feel like we have been one of the best teams in the country, quite frankly, over the last … 30 days.

“We have beaten a lot of good basketball teams, and that is the great thing about playing in the Big 12 is night in, night out, you are playing against some of the best teams in the country. We feel like we are battle-tested. We feel like we have been through a lot. We have a lot of reference points and we feel like the momentum that we have (is significant).”