What Wisconsin’s tournament championship loss to Michigan means for March Madness chances

Wisconsin basketball fell one minute short of a Big Ten Tournament title on Sunday afternoon, falling to the Michigan Wolverines, 59-53.

The Badgers were plagued by poor shooting and the ball bouncing the wrong way in the final minute. They led 51-50 with the ball and 2:15 remaining. An empty offensive possession led to a Tre Donaldson 3-pointer and a 53-51 Michigan lead. Tied at 53, Wolverines center Vladislav Goldin made two key free throws to put his team in front with 46 seconds left. That possession was extended several times as Michigan was awarded the basketball on each out-of-bounds review. While each was the correct call, it’s hard to ignore Michigan’s fortune on each of those loose-ball sequences.

Wisconsin’s final two possessions encapsulated the team’s shooting performance (21.7% from the floor and 17.5% from 3) — its worst in a game since 2011. Standout guard John Blackwell missed a contested layup with 24 seconds left. Michigan grabbed the rebound and made two free throws, extending its lead to four. Blackwell missed a wide-open mid-range jump shot on the other end, but got the ball back after a Carter Gilmore offensive rebound. He then missed another 3.

The Badgers made 7-of-40 3-point attempts on the afternoon, plus 8-of-29 from inside the arc. That shooting performance, simply, explains the loss. Wisconsin struggled to find an offensive answer against a Michigan team that effectively defended the painted area.

Michigan wasn’t much better on offense. But it made the key plays late to clinch the tournament title.

Wisconsin is onto the NCAA Tournament, where it will be a No. 3 seed in the East region. Before we look ahead to the bracket, here are major takeaways from the hard-fought loss to Michigan.

Wisconsin must hope those shooting woes don’t repeat in March Madness

Wisconsin shot the mentioned 17.5% from 3. Notable stat lines include John Tonje’s 1-of-14 from the field and 0-of-5 from 3, Max Klesmit’s 2-of-10 from 3, Nolan Winter’s 1-of-5 from 3 and Kamari McGee, Xavier Amos, Carter Gilmore and Jack Janicki combining to make 1-of-11 from the outside.

The Badgers’ shooting woes could have been due to fatigue: The team was playing its fourth game in as many days. The only proper takeaway is the team needs to flush the performance. It could lose to anybody in the NCAA Tournament field with a repeat showing.

The Badgers lost because their star struggled

It’s often unfair to reduce a complicated result to one factor or one performance. In this case, it’s indicative of a larger point. Wisconsin fell to Michigan due to John Tonje’s offensive struggles. He finished with nine points on 1-of-14 from the field, 0-of-5 from 3 and 7-of-8 from the free-throw line. Michigan had a strong defensive game plan against the first-team All-Big Ten wing. Still, Tonje missed most of the open looks he had. That’s a recipe for a loss in a game no one else on the team, other than John Blackwell, did much offensively.

Wisconsin will go as far in the NCAA Tournament as Tonje will take it. Sunday was an unfortunate example of what can happen if he isn’t on his game offensively.

Tonje will benefit from a few days of rest before Wisconsin returns to the court on Thursday. A prediction: he shouldn’t have much trouble returning to the All-American form that led Wisconsin to the title game in the first place.

Credit to Michigan — sometimes, teams are just great in crunch time

Wisconsin made a few key mistakes down the stretch. Primarily, it failed to grab several rebounds and loose balls during the possession on which Michigan took the lead for good. Then, Blackwell missed his bid to tie the contest. In hindsight, that last minute was due to Michigan’s clutch play and good fortune more than Wisconsin’s mistakes. The Wolverines win close games at an alarming rate. Sunday was just another last-minute win added to the long list.

The loss shouldn’t matter for Wisconsin’s NCAA Tournament chances

Wisconsin’s NCAA Tournament fate was not on the line on Sunday afternoon. There have been several teams to exit the conference tournament red-hot and lose early in March Madness. Iowa did so in 2022 with four wins in four days to win the Big Ten title only to lose in the first round to Richmond the following week.

It would be surprising if the Badgers struggled in a similar manner against No. 14 Montana on Thursday, or, with a win, in future matchups. The team’s run to the Big Ten Tournament title game matters more than its struggles in the game itself. Again, this is Greg Gard’s best shot at a deep tournament run since 2017.