SEC football gets underway from Music City this weekend as Vanderbilt plays host to No. 1 Alabama in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game by the expert model that picks winners.
Alabama shot up to a No. 1 ranking this week after a statement victory at home against Georgia in which the offense ran out to an early 28-0 lead before needing to mount a comeback to hold off the Bulldogs’ rally, sitting 12th in FBS in scoring offense in the first month of the season.
Vandy started off strong, beating Virginia Tech in the opener, but dropped a late decision against Georgia Southern and then missed a field goal after playing close at Missouri two weeks ago, sitting at 2-2 and 0-1 in SEC play, just 7 combined points away from being undefeated.
What do the experts think of the matchup this week?
Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and Vanderbilt compare in this game, with an updated projection.
Alabama vs. Vanderbilt score prediction
As expected, the simulations are in favor of the Crimson Tide taking down the Commodores.
SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Vanderbilt by a projected score of 42 to 19 and to win the game by an expected 23.2 points in the game.
The model gives the Tide a strong 93 percent chance of outright victory over Vanderbilt.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.
Alabama vs. Vanderbilt odds
Alabama is a 22.5 point favorite against Vanderbilt, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel set the total at 55.5 points for the game.
And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -1800 and for Vanderbilt at +1000 to win outright.
Computer prediction
Other analytical models also favor a convincing win for the Crimson Tide.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Alabama is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 92.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.
That leaves Vanderbilt as the expected winner in the remaining 7.9 percent of sims.
Alabama is projected to be 22.3 points better than Vanderbilt on the same field in both team’s current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
Alabama is second among SEC teams with a 91.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives Vanderbilt a win total projection of 4.4 games and a 16.5 percent shot at a bowl game.
How to watch Alabama vs. Vanderbilt
When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 3:15 p.m. Central
TV: SEC Network
