Preview: LSU hosts San Diego State in NCAA opener as Tigers eye second-round showdown

March Madness is here. The first round of the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament gets underway on Friday. As a No. 3 seed, Kim Mulkey and her LSU Tigers will play the role of host in Baton Rouge. LSU will face No. 14 seed San Diego State on Saturday night while No. 6 Florida State and No. 11 George Mason play earlier in the evening.

LSU and Florida State are heavy favorites to advance to the second round, setting up a likely Tigers vs. Seminoles meeting on Monday. However, a Florida State win isn’t a certainty. LSU faced a No. 11 seed in round two last year after Middle Tennessee upset Louisville.

LSU fans will be up late on Saturday night, with the Tigers’ tip-off not expected until 9:15 PM CT.

Mulkey and LSU are looking to return to the Final Four after falling in the Elite Eight last year. As a No. 3 seed, LSU will face an uphill battle to get there, but South Carolina and Texas are on the opposite side of the bracket. USC and UConn are in a different quadrant. The road is manageable if LSU is healthy.

But let’s just worry about this weekend for now. Here’s a complete preview of the action on tap in Baton Rouge this weekend.

Where LSU stands entering the NCAA Tournament?

LSU did not play its best basketball at the end of the regular season. The Tigers dropped their last three of four games entering Selection Sunday. LSU relies on its rebounding to gain an edge, but the Tigers didn’t have that in their final four games.

On the year, LSU’s offensive rebound rate was 41%. In the loss to Texas, it was 21.9%. LSU doesn’t shoot the three-ball. Generating second-chance points is how this offense makes up for that. If LSU isn’t rebounding, there aren’t many paths to victory.

LSU didn’t go cold from the field — the Tigers just didn’t have as many opportunities to cash in without the rebounds. Despite no Flau’Jae Johnson, LSU’s defense played well in the Texas outing, holding the Longhorns to just 56 points.

All of that is to say, don’t read into LSU’s regular season finish. This is still a team that went 28-5 with a handful of ranked wins. LSU’s rebounding struggles aren’t likely to continue, especially if Aneesah Morrow is healthy (more on that next).

Are Flau’Jae Johnson and Aneesah Morrow healthy?

LSU isn’t that hard to figure out. When Johnson and Morrow can take over the game, the Tigers win. If Johnson or Morrow is off, LSU struggles. Both dealt with lingering injuries down the stretch of the regular season. Johnson sat out the entire SEC Tournament and Morrow left LSU’s loss to Texas and did not return.

Both were seen wearing boots on Selection Sunday, but Mulkey says both are healthy and ready to go. That’s critical for LSU.

We mentioned how important rebounding was to LSU — Morrow leads the country with 13.6 per game. Morrow rebounds at an elite level despite not having elite size. Her athleticism is a key part of her game and if she’s not 100%, it raises questions about how effective LSU can be inside. Morrow is certain to play, but it’s a situation worth monitoring. Does Morrow maintain the same burst upon returning to the court?

A similar sentiment could be said for Johnson. She’s not a sharpshooter but can blow past defenders with her speed. If Johnson doesn’t have her top gear, LSU’s offense will need an alternative plan.

The Tigers should be able to handle business vs. San Diego State no matter the health of their stars, but when LSU starts facing the likes of Florida State, this will matter.

What LSU fans need to know about San Diego State

Upsets are rare in women’s college basketball, but that could start to change. As the sport continues to increase its talent level, more lower seeds will have the fire power to knock off top programs. LSU will hope to avoid that fate when it plays No. 13 seed San Diego State.

The Aztecs are 25-9 in their 12th year under head coach Stacie Terry-Hutson. This is Terry-Hutson’s first NCAA Tournament appearance with the program.

SDSU relies on a balanced attack. They don’t possess an elite unit on either side of the court, but their offense and defense rank in the top 100.

The offense doesn’t shoot a ton of threes, but it’s efficient when they do, with a .346 shooting percentage from deep. SDSU’s best path to an upset over LSU is keeping up with the Tigers in the rebounding game. The Aztecs’s rebound rate of 51.3% is middle of the pack.

Only two Aztecs average double-digit points per game. Veronica Sheffey (11.4) and Naomi Panganiban (10.5). They lack a scorer with the ability to take over the game. Cali Clark is their top rebounder with 8.5 per game.

Can Florida State challenge LSU?

Assuming LSU and FSU handle business in the first round, LSU will meet Florida State on Monday. The Noles can be dangerous.

Florida State’s offense ranks No. 3 nationally with 87.2 points per game. This is one of the best offenses in the country, from a volume and efficiency perspective. LSU’s scoring offense ranks fifth in the country, making Florida State one of the few that can keep up. If this becomes a shootout, LSU is in dangerous territory.

The good news for LSU: Florida State’s defense isn’t good. FSU ranks 317th in women’s college basketball, allowing 71.2 points per game.

And while FSU’s offense scores a lot of points, they don’t create shots with assists and are middle of the pack when it comes to rebounding. A good game plan from LSU, paired with a healthy Johnson and Morrow, should be enough to beat the Noles.

Prediction

I’ll roll with chalk.

LSU and Florida State both win their first-round games. On Monday, LSU beats Florida State and advances to its third-straight Sweet 16 appearance.