It was a big year for extensions in the Boston Red Sox organization, and only time will tell whether those extensions bear fruit.
There was center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela’s eight-year extension signed as a rookie, and there was also the much-celebrated three-year extension for manager Alex Cora just after the All-Star break. But starting pitcher Brayan Bello’s extension kick-started the entire trend.
The Red Sox announced a six-year, $55 million extension for Bello on the eve of the regular season, while playing exhibition games in Bello’s native Dominican Republic. Boston has not had a successful homegrown starter in at least a decade, and paying Bello was a statement that they thought he could be that pitcher.
The 2024 season proved to be a struggle for Bello, although he was able to salvage a respectable season with a solid second-half performance. But one evaluator already sees the Bello extension as a failure.
Hannah Filippo of FanSided named Bello’s Red Sox deal the fourth-worst contract in the AL East on Monday.
“For $1.66 million, Bello is pitching slightly below his price tag this year. By 2027, however, the Sox will be paying him $8.66 million and should expect him to be better with more experience,” Filippo said. “It will be Boston’s fault for prematurely setting a high bar and miscalculating his potential if Bello doesn’t live up to expectations.”
The first point here is blatantly false, because anyone who throws 162 1/3 innings during a big-league season is worth much more than $1.66 million, no matter how effectively they threw those innings. Bello made 30 starts this year, and though he didn’t always work deep into games, he was still good enough to rack up 14 wins.
Bello’s numbers also weren’t as bad as one would think. His 4.49 translates to a 95 ERA+, meaning he was nearly league-average this season, and after a horrible May and June following his return from injury, he turned it around and pitched to a 3.66 ERA in his final 16 starts of the season.
Bello’s deal is bound to be a steal until 2028, when the base will jump to $16.17 million. At that point, Boston definitely has to hope the righty has developed into at least a 3-WAR pitcher, or they won’t be recouping the value they thought they would. But one also has to factor in inflation, which will only jack up the prices of other pitchers’ contracts between now and then.
All in all, it’s still way too early to call Bello’s deal “bad” value for the Red Sox. He’s got three more years on seven-figure salaries that will all look like steals if he does half of what he’s capable of doing. And if he ever delivers fully on his immense talent, the entire deal will be a home run.
