3 keys to a Michigan basketball upset over Auburn in the Sweet 16
Advancing the past the Sweet 16 will be a tall task for the Michigan basketball team, especially as top-seeded Auburn awaits.
The Tigers are the top-seeded team in the NCAA tournament for a reason. They have one of the top candidates for player of the year, and one of the best head coaches in the sport.
Auburn is also battled tested. The Tigers have 14 quadrant-1 wins. They haven’t lost to any team ranked outside the top 20 of the Kenpom rankings and they are also listed as a nearly double-digit favorite heading into Friday night’s game.
It’s a difficult matchup but in some ways, it’s a good one for Michigan basketball. The Wolverines will need to be at their best to keep this incredible postseason run going, and here are three. keys to pulling off an upset Friday night.
Make life tough on Johni Broome
In Auburn’s five losses this season, Broome has averaged 20.6 points per game, two points higher than his season scoring average, so it’s not as simple as saying you need to slow him down.
Michigan needs to make life difficult on him, which it might be able to do with its length. All season long, the key for Michigan basketball has been winning the 2-point battle, in addition to minimizing turnovers and not shooting 20 percent from three.
That’s going to be the same in this game. I wouldn’t overhelp a ton and allow Auburn’s shooters to get going. Make Broome score a bunch of points, but force him to take a bunch of shots to do it. Keeping the assist numbers down for the Tigers will be key.
Make Broome and Auburn make tough 2s. They are probably good enough to beat you doing that, but it plays into what Michigan does well.
Win the rebounding battle
When we were watching Michigan State dominate the Wolverines on the boards, it didn’t seem like the result we saw on Saturday, out-rebounding Texas A&M was possible.
But Michigan basketball has continued to do well on the boards. Not always, as UC San Diego outrebounded Michigan, but the Wolverines had a huge advantage against Maryland. They also had the edge against A&M and will need to do the same against Auburn.
The Tigers average 11.8 offensive rebounds, which ranks in the top 100. They also allow 10.7 which ranks 246th. If Michigan can take advantage of that and limit Auburn on the offensive glass, it could help close the gap between the two teams.
Winning 1-on-1 matchups
This is something Michigan basketball needs to do on both ends of the floor. Auburn and Michigan have similar goals defensively. They want to limit assists and force teams to make plays one-on-one.
Against Auburn, that’s easier said than done. They average 16.3 assists per game (33rd) but allow just 9.6 assists per game to opponents which also ranks in the top 40 overall. Michigan is also in the top 40 for assists (16.1) and in terms of limiting assists (11.3).
The Wolverines aren’t quite as effective as Auburn, but the focal point for each team, with all of the switches on screens, will be forcing 1-on-1 plays. That also means making 1-on-1 plays defensively and rebounding.
The team that does a better job of that on Friday night will advance.
