Are you buying?
It is hard, one day after watching the mighty Dodgers finish off the formidable-yet-bumbling Yankees (happy Liberation Day!), to think that the Red Sox could win the World Series next year. It would be considerably less hard if, say, the final two teams this year had been the Rangers and Diamondbacks, like they were last year; if you squint hard enough, you could see the Sox in either of their spaces. The playoffs are a near-total crapshoot with one rule: You gotta be in it to win it.
As of this morning, the Red Sox are +4000 to win the 2025 World Series on my FanDuel app, tied with the Tigers and Brewers. On the bright side, they’re third in the division, with the Yankees (+750) and Orioles (+1100) far ahead and the Rays (+5000) and Blue Jays (+7000) further behind. What does this mean? Not much that we don’t already know. These odds more or less reflect what would happen if they started the new season today, and scarcely account for major offseason moves.
Do I think the Sox will make major offseason moves? No. Maybe one. But I can’t rule it out. And it’s important to note that all of these odds are made up, largely to get you to lose money. Looked at it from that angle, and 40-1 sure looks like the upside case from the sharps, and even then it’s worth noting, even if it’s math I’m wholly inventing, that there are 32 teams and the Sox are “supposed” to win it all 1 out of every 40 times — less often than if it was a completely random draw.
I don’t suggest betting on the Sox for any reason other than pure nihilistic fun, but I’m wondering what y’all think about this outlook. To me, it says exactly what we’ve been fearing: Get ready for more of the same. No one with money at stake — be it FanDuel or John Henry — seems to be bracing for any sort of sea change that would put the Sox in true World Series contention. Henry, in particular, seems content to wait as long as he needs to for the tide to rise around here on its own. It could work, but I’m skeptical it would happen next year. What about you?
