Latest prospect rankings could affect Harry Ford’s Mariners future

Harry Ford has been a top asset in the Mariners system since he was picked 12th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft. Prior to 2024, he was MLB.com’s No. 4 overall prospect and was expected to make his big league debut in 2025. However, after his most recent minor league season, his future may be more uncertain than originally thought.

In their yearly list of the sport’s top 101 prospects, Baseball Prospectus notably omitted Ford. Last year, he was ranked No. 34 on the same list, which signals a significant drop in his stock. Similarly, he failed to crack Baseball America’s list of top 10 catching prospects. What could have happened this past season to change his reputation from future elite backstop to a near afterthought?

He spent all of his 2024 in Double-A Arkansas, making a total of 523 plate appearances. His offensive numbers were quite a bit lower than any of his other minor league seasons, slashing just .249/.366/.367 with 26 doubles and seven home runs. Although he struggled to hit the ball with authority, he continued to exercise strong plate discipline and now has 265 combined walks in the past three seasons, the second-most of any minor-leaguer in that span. According to scouts, he has begun to simplify his approach at the plate and has tried to compensate for his lack of power by spraying to all fields.

Defensively, he continues to struggle with catcher-specific skills, specifically blocking and framing. In 2024, he spent 40 games as a designated hitter and even eight games in left field as the Mariners have tried capitalizing on his excellent speed, a rare characteristic for catchers. Daulton Varsho and MJ Melendez made similar positional adjustments as they spent more time in the big leagues, and Ford could follow a similar path.

So what does the road ahead look like for him? If he stays within the organization, it may be a while before he gets a crack at the majors. Cal Raleigh has become one of the best at his position on all sides of the plate and with his free agency not coming until 2028, Ford would likely be a backup at best until Raleigh leaves in free agency or as part of a trade. Because of Raleigh’s performance and on-field durability, Seattle doesn’t place a ton of value into their second-string catchers given last year’s signing of Seby Zavala and their most recent trade acquisition. The club seems to be keen on fleshing out his outfield skills, but it would be surprising if it was to bolster the existing talent on the major league squad.

Instead, preparing him for a trade seems more likely. He was already being discussed as a major piece for an offseason trade, but now that he has fallen out of several top prospect lists, the front office might have to wait if they want to get the best deal. For now, he’s a speedy player with great plate discipline, but if he wants to live up to his original hype, whether it’s with the team that drafted him or a new squad, he’ll have to develop a few more tools.