BYU’s Chances to Make the NCAA Tournament Have Nearly Doubled Over the Last Week
Going into the two-game homestand against the Kansas schools, the BYU basketball program was firmly on the bubble. After sweeping those two games and improving to 9-6 in conference play, BYU’s chances to make the tournament have almost doubled.
One week ago, BYU had a 44.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament according to Team Rankings. Fast forward to today and BYU’s chances have increased to 73.0%.
With seven regular season games remaining, what does BYU need to do to cement their chances of hearing their name called on Selection Sunday?
The Path to 21 Wins
According to the projections by the good people over at Team Rankings, BYU’s chances to make the tournament increase substantially if they reach 21 wins by Selection Sunday. At 20 wins, BYU’s chances to make the tournament would be 24.6%. At 21 wins, BYU’s chances would increase to 68.8%. That means BYU would need three more wins between now and Selection Sunday to feel good about getting into the tournament.
After beating Kansas on Tuesday night, BYU improved to 18-8 on the season. Using KenPom win probabilities, here are BYU’s chances to get to 20 wins or more in the regular season:
- 20 wins or better (4-3 to close the regular season) – 89.0%
- 21 wins or better (5-2 to close the regular season) – 57.1%
- 22 wins or better (6-1 to close the regular season) – 18.7%
- 23 wins(7-0 to close the regular season) – 2.3%
KenPom’s projected record for BYU at the end of the regular season is 21-10. In that scenario, BYU would be in the NCAA Tournament even if they don’t win a game in the Big 12 tournament. A win in the Big 12 tournament at that point would likely help BYU’s seeding.
The next two home road against Arizona and Arizona State are critical for BYU. If BYU sweeps its upcoming homestand, the Cougars would suddenly be in a position to earn a 7-seed or even a 6-seed. A split would keep BYU firmly in the NCAA Tournament field. Losing both games would potentially push BYU back onto the bubble.
If BYU loses to both Arizona and Arizona State, they would probably need to win a game in the Big 12 tournament to make the tournament (unless they pull off a road upset at Iowa State and protect home court).
If BYU gets to 22 wins, they are a lock to get in. Team Rankings gives BYU a 93.6% chance to make the tournament if they get to 22 wins. There are three paths to 22 wins for BYU:
- Go 2-3 over the last 5 games and win two games in the Big 12 tournament
- Go 3-2 over the last 5 games and win one game in the Big 12 tournament
- Go 4-1 over the last 5 games and win no games in the Big 12 tournament
Odds of Making a Run in the Tournament
If BYU gets to the tournament, what are they odds to make a run?
According to Team Rankings, here are BYU’s chances to advance to each round:
- Get in the NCAA Tournament: 73.0%
- Round of 64: 70.9%
- Round of 32: 39.1%
- Sweet 16: 13.1%
- Elite 8: 5.6%
- Final 4: 2.0%
- National Championship: 0.7%
- Win National Championship: 0.2%
