If there was one driver and team that needed the summer break more than anyone else it was Max Verstappen and Red Bull.
Given the high drama of the last few grands prix at the front including Lewis Hamilton’s emotional home win at Silverstone, McLaren’s ill handling of the Hungarian Grand Prix, the bumper cars between Verstappen and Lando Norris in Austria and the George Russell Belgium disqualification – it seems to have sneaked by that Red Bull’s overall pace is now a huge issue for the team.
Verstappen has now not won for four races and this is his current longest run without a race victory since late on in the 2020 season which was utterly dominated by Hamilton.
Four races perhaps isn’t exactly the end of the world but when you consider Red Bull started the season racking up one-two finishes, the drop off in pace is alarming.
Is Verstappen out of form? Perhaps, but if anything he looks to be extracting the very most out of the RB20 especially when you compare his results to the ever struggling and hugely under pressure Sergio Perez who could be forgiven for forgetting what a podium finish looks like.
Red Bull have wings clipped
Yet it’s not all bad news for Verstappen. That flying start to the season where we all thought we were watching 2023 on repeat does still count towards his points total and as such he retains a healthy looking 78 point lead at the top with just 10 races to go – a three-race win cushion.
For Red Bull, the case is more severe. In theory they could be overtaken by McLaren at the Dutch Grand Prix in a worst case scenario given their 42-point lead. Unlikely of course, but given the 10 grands prix to run and with arguably a stronger driver pairing, that’s a lead McLaren have enough time to eat away into.
Verstappen hasn’t been that far away from the top though. No wins in four, but he may have been able to hold on to a win in Austria if not for a poor pit-stop, he certainly had the pace to win the British Grand Prix, was let down by poor strategy in Hungary and was held back by a 10-place deduction in Belgium following his components change.
How many races has Max Verstappen won in 2024?
So it’s not like the Red Bull can’t challenge for wins anymore – Verstappen has seven grand prix victories in 2024 as well as three sprint triumphs – but the domination days are well and truly over.
Verstappen’s biggest opponent as we head towards his home race at the Dutch Grand Prix will be, cliche klaxon at the ready, himself.
Getting frustrated and lashing out like he did at Hungary cost him dearly after his wild move on Hamilton and revealed that Verstappen still has much to learn as a grand prix driver. The next 10 races are important not just for the 26 year-old’s championship hopes but his development as an F1 driver too.
An interesting test awaits Verstappen in front of his home fans at Zandvoort where he has won the last three years. Does he risk it all to please the Dutch crowd for a fourth consecutive year or does he play the championship game?
Sometimes settling for second or third instead of risking a win is what wins championships, not going all out to try and win every single grand prix. Of course we all want to see that, but reality has to kick in too.
Verstappen F1 title dreams outlined
Given Red Bull’s pace compared to rivals is arguably at its worse since 2020, consistent high points should be the main target for Verstappen in the second half of the season.
This is especially true given that Red Bull don’t really look like a team who are going to turn around their downturn in performance anytime soon.
Already this year they have seen team principal Christian Horner distracted by an internal investigation that after half-a-year has only just ended in his favour.
Long time key staff members Adrian Newey and Jonathan Wheatley have their bags packed to leave the team, Verstappen’s family have been in their own Red Bull rows that have seen him linked with Mercedes and even Perez’s seat seems to be a constant talking point given his highly questionable form.
It’s just not a happy camp at Red Bull right now. Who knows what 2025 is going to bring them but for Verstappen it’s clear that over the next 10 races he just needs to stay out of trouble to secure the world championship or it could get very messy , very quickly.
