Indiana Men’s Bracketology: Hoosiers Right Back On The Bubble

Welcome to the bubble.

Indiana’s men’s basketball team has been meandering around the edges of the NCAA Tournament picture since conference play began for good in January. Never a solid NCAA Tournament team, Indiana has sometimes surged into consideration, only to fall back.

After Sunday’s 73-58 victory over Purdue, the fourth Quad 1 win of the season for the Hoosiers, Indiana was back in the ascendant.

Bracketology updates early this week have reflected Indiana’s Lazarus act.

According to bracketmatrix.com, Indiana was included in the field of 46 different bracketologists. The website tracks 105 different bracketologists, so the Hoosiers truly do split opinion.

Among the more famous bracketologists, Jerry Palm of CBS Sports had Indiana in the field in his update on Monday. He had Indiana as a No. 11 seed playing in a NCAA Tournament play-in game at Dayton, Ohio against Wake Forest. The winner would then move on to play No. 6 seed Memphis in Providence, R.I. in the South Regional.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi released his most recent bracket on Tuesday and he did not have the Hoosiers in his field. He had Indiana as the second-last team left out of the field.

Barring a long run of wins, Indiana is likely to stay on the bubble right up to Selection Sunday on March 16. That’s because of the conflicting nature of Indiana’s tournament resume.

On the good side, Indiana has four Quad 1 wins. The Hoosiers’ 4-11 Quad 1 record doesn’t seem very good, but only 33 schools have more Quad 1 victories.

Several of the schools Indiana is competing with on the bubble has not and cannot catch the Hoosiers’ Quad 1 victory total. It’s a major advantage for Indiana and there’s at least one more Quad 1 win opportunity (at Oregon) still left on the schedule.

What goes against Indiana is a low NET ranking (56 on Tuesday) for an at-large team and a head-to-head loss to one of its fellow bubble teams. Nebraska was listed in Lunardi’s field on Tuesday. The Cornhuskers have five Quad 1 wins and they also have a win against Indiana. It could loom as a tiebreaker down the line.

It’s also an open question how many of Indiana’s wins will remain Quad 1 before the season runs out. Penn State was just re-established as a Quad 1 win after the Nittany Lions (NET: 69) won their last two games.

Ironically, it’s possible that if Indiana defeats Penn State at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, it could drop Penn State’s NET ranking down to where the Hoosiers would lose a Quad 1 win.

One thing is certain – Indiana has no margin for error. The game at Oregon on March 4 is the only opportunity to bolster the resume before the Big Ten Tournament, but the other three games – home contests against Penn State and Ohio State and a road game at struggling Washington – present chances for the Hoosiers to do damage to their own cause.

It’s very important for Indiana not to have any slippage that would lead to losses that could see the Hoosiers end up on the wrong side of the bubble.