Four teams Florida Basketball won’t want to see in the NCAA Tournament

Florida Basketball is wrapping up the regular season this week with two final games against Alabama and Ole Miss before the SEC Tournament next week. Bracketology has Florida projected as a two seed, but a strong finish should bump the Gators back into a one seed for the NCAA Tournament.

Whether they are a one seed or a two seed, Florida should feel confident about making a run in March Madness. But, the following are realistic opponents the Gators could see in their run to the Final Four who could cause problems for Florida.

First Round – Omaha

The 15th and 16th seeds are subject to change depending on how conference tournaments shake out, but the Omaha Mavericks are a near lock to make the tournament out of the Summit League, given that St. Thomas isn’t eligible for the NCAA Tournament until next season.

Even though it doesn’t feel like it at times, Florida is actually 6th in the country in opponent three-point shooting. But of all the teams who are slated to be potential 15 or 16 seeds, Omaha is the strongest three-point shooting team at 43rd in the country.

All it takes is a couple of early threes to generate a feeling of hope for Omaha that could make the first round tighter than most fans are hoping for.

Second Round – New Mexico

Right now, New Mexico is projected to be an 8th seed. The Lobos have a lot going for it that would allow them to match up and be a thorn in the side of the Gators if the two met in the second round.

Notably, they are 10th in the country in defense rebounding percentage, which could mitigate some of the second-chance opportunities Florida has been able to leverage at times.

While New Mexico doesn’t have anyone listed at 7’0″ or taller, they do have four players listed at 6’9″ or taller, along with three more listed at 6’7″ or 6’8″.

Sweet 16 – Texas Tech

Of the teams Florida could see in the Sweet 16 if chalk held, and not counting a potential rematch against any of the SEC foes, Texas Tech would provide the biggest juxtaposition in style to match up with the Gators.

In theory, Florida would have a massive size advantage against the Red Raiders, but Texas Tech loves to shoot it from three, rarely gets their shot blocked, rarely turn it over, and limit opponent assists.

The Red Raiders have a win over Houston and took them to the wire in the rematch, so this is a solid ball club capable of causing problems for Florida.

Elite Eight – Duke

One of the backdrops in Florida’s quest to be the number one seed in the NCAA Tournament is that there isn’t actually a great landing spot for them regionally. The South Region is in Atlanta, but Auburn is a near-lock for that. Houston will probably get sent to San Francisco, which leaves Newark and Indianapolis as the two remaining destinations if Florida is a number one seed.

The conundrum is that if they are on the top line, they probably get sent to Indianapolis, where there is a good chance they could see Michigan State in a defacto home game for the Spartans.

But Florida matches up well in several areas against the Spartans and would otherwise feel okay about this.

But if Florida dips to the number two seed, Duke feels like the one-seed the Gators would least want to see. Florida has beaten Auburn. If either Alabama or Tennessee leapfrogs the Gators for the top line, Florida will still like its chances. And if Florida winds up with Houston, that game is probably in San Francisco, and home-court advantage is mitigated.

It’s not to say Florida can’t overcome Duke or that the Blue Devils don’t have flaws of their own, but they are the only other team in the country to beat Auburn.

Combine that with what would be a very pro-Duke crowd, and it is the least desirable of potential Elite Eight matchups for Florida.