Assessing Kentucky’s chances in the SEC Tournament

Despite inheriting a team with no returning scholarship players following former head coach John Calipari’s departure to Arkansas, Mark Pope took advantage of the transfer portal and has led Kentucky to an impressive season in year one.

The season has had its fair share of ups and downs, though. After starting 7-0, including a 77-72 win over the current No. 1 team in the country, Duke, on Nov. 12, Kentucky’s remaining non-conference schedule included losses to unranked Clemson and Ohio State, plus another quality win over No. 7 Gonzaga on Dec. 7.

 

Although Kentucky suffered back-to-back losses multiple times in conference play, a 10-8 record in SEC play, especially this season with the depth of the league, is commendable.

 

So, how does Kentucky stack up in Nashville and what are its chances in the SEC Tournament?

 

The Wildcats are the No. 6 seed for the conference tournament, which puts them in the second round and provides an extra day of rest. Kentucky possesses the third-best offense in the country (85.8 PPG) and averages nearly 10 made threes per game. However, a lackluster defense (77 PPG) is 308th in Division I and presents some serious concerns.

 

The Wildcats will face the winner of the Georgia-Oklahoma game, which is scheduled to be played on Wednesday night at approximately 9:30 p.m. ET. Both teams were difficult matchups for Kentucky this season, with Georgia handing it one of its eight losses in league play and Oklahoma losing in an 83-82 nail-biter on Feb. 26.

 

In the 82-69 loss to the Bulldogs to begin SEC play, Kentucky only made six of its 25 three-point attempts. Rebounding, which has also been an issue for Kentucky this season, plagued the Wildcats as well with a 41-34 disadvantage.

 

Although Kentucky prevailed in a shootout against Oklahoma, it took a career-high 28 points from junior Otega Oweh for the Wildcats to survive. Regardless of the opponent, Kentucky will face an early challenge in the second round on Thursday to kick off SEC Tournament play.

 

With only one SEC Tournament win since 2021, Kentucky heads to Nashville looking to put its recent struggles in the past. If it can take care of business on Thursday, Kentucky will face three-seed Alabama in the quarterfinals. It would be the third meeting between the two teams this season, with the Crimson Tide taking the first two.

 

Kentucky’s defense was a defining factor in those losses, as it has been all season. Aside from Alabama and top-seeded Auburn, Kentucky has wins over each of the other teams seeded ahead of it (Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M), which shows what it is capable of doing against quality opponents.

 

With its win over Missouri on Saturday, Kentucky has eight wins over top 15 opponents, which is tied for the NCAA record. It has proven it can beat anyone, but some key areas are going to dictate how far the Wildcats go.

 

For Kentucky to be successful, especially with guards Jaxson Robinson (right wrist) and Kerr Kriisa (broken foot) out for the season, rebounding and defense are critical. If the Wildcats can attack the glass and limit second-chance points on defense, it will lead to better opportunities on the other end for their high-scoring offense to take advantage of.

 

If the defensive woes continue, though, it could be challenging for Kentucky to make a deep run. Bottom line, Kentucky’s rebounding and defense will determine how far it goes in the SEC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.