Big Ten Tournament Scenarios: Path Is Simple For Indiana Men’s Basketball
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Back on Feb. 11 after Indiana broke a five-game losing streak with a 71-67 win at Michigan State, Indiana coach Mike Woodson laid it on the line for the Hoosiers and their fans.
“I want them to get in the (NCAA) tournament and experience it. And get in the Big Ten Tournament and see if we can win it,” Woodson said. “That’s what it’s all about. It’s not just being there. You want to get there and win a Big Ten Tournament and see where that leads you.”
At the time, missing the Big Ten Tournament was a real possibility. This is the first season where not every Big Ten team will be in the field. Fifteen of the 18 Big Ten schools will be in the Big Ten Tournament when it begins on March 12 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Missing the Big Ten Tournament was still a possibility entering the week. Losses to Purdue and Penn State would have put the Hoosiers in a very compromising position.
As it is, Indiana won both games. So the worst case scenario of missing the Big Ten Tournament has passed.
Woodson’s goal of winning the Big Ten Tournament is still in front of the Hoosiers, though it will be a challenging task.
Indiana can no longer qualify for the coveted double-bye reserved for the top four finishers. The best record Indiana can achieve is 11-9.
So for the Hoosiers to make some noise, they need to avoid having to go the long route of playing five games in five days. That’s harder to avoid than it used to be.
In the past, only the lowliest Big Ten teams played on day one. Seeds 11-14 in a 14-team league.
Day one is now reserved for mid-pack teams. Seeds 10-15 from an 18-team league will play on day one, which has had one game added to the slate.
Winning five games in five days is near-impossible and the Hoosiers are not clear of having to go that route yet.
With games left at Washington (Saturday), at Oregon (next Tuesday) and at home against Ohio State (March 8), the scenario for Indiana is simple.
Win two games and the Hoosiers will begin the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday. Fail to do so? The Hoosiers will start on Wednesday.
To project this, Hoosiers On SI used barttorvik.com’s predicted games outcomes and used that as a guide to predict the other games.
Here’s some the scenarios that could come to pass for the Hoosiers.
What If All Of Torvik’s Projections Came True?
Indiana would finish 10-10 as Torvik has the Hoosiers finishing 2-1. This is an improvement from most of the season where the Hoosiers were predicted to finish as low as 7-13 in conference play.
If Indiana finishes 10-10 with other predicted results, the Hoosiers would be by themselves in ninth place. That would be good enough to avoid having to play the first day of the Big Ten Tournament.
In this case, No. 9 seed Indiana would play No. 8 seed Illinois in the first game of the day on Thursday at the Big Ten Tournament. The winner would face No. 1 seed Michigan State on Friday.
What If Indiana Wins All Of Its Remaining Games?
The Torvik-predicted loss for the Hoosiers is their game at Oregon next Tuesday. If that outcome is reversed, Indiana be 11-9 in the Big Ten and would finish in a three-way tie for seventh place with Illinois and Oregon.
Indiana would finish second in this tiebreaker and get the No. 8 seed. The Hoosiers would play No. 9 seed Oregon – still on the first game of the day on Thursday with the winner advancing to play No. 1 seed Michigan State.
What If Indiana Loses All Of Its Remaining Games?
Indiana would finish 8-12 in the Big Ten and would be in a tie with Rutgers for 11th place.
This would consign Indiana to the first day of the Big Ten Tournament. The No. 11-seeded Hoosiers would play No. 14 seed Southern California in the late Wednesday game. The winner would advance to play No. 6 seed UCLA on Thursday with the winner of that game advancing to play No. 3 seed Wisconsin on Friday.
What If Indiana Goes 2-1?
We’ve already dealt with the predicted 2-1 outcome of wins over Washington and Ohio State and a loss at Oregon, but what if you mix it up? Not much changes since the record would be 10-10 regardless.
If Indiana swept the West Coast trip and lost at home to Ohio State, the Hoosiers would still be a No. 9 seed, winning a tiebreaker with Ohio State to avoid the first day of the tournament. The only difference would be that the Hoosiers would play Oregon instead of Illinois.
It’s the same scenario if Indiana lost at Washington, but defeated the Ducks and Buckeyes.
What If Indiana Goes 1-2?
This is not a road the Hoosiers want to go down as it would leave them at 9-11 in the Big Ten.
One win on the West Coast – no matter what combination it is – and a loss to Ohio State would result in the Hoosiers finishng in a tie with Nebraska for 10th. Indiana would lose that tiebreaker and would be the No. 11 seed and play No. 14 USC in the late Wednesday game. The winner would advance to play No. 6 seed UCLA on Thursday with the winner of that advancing to play No. 3 seed Wisconsin on Friday.
Getting swept on the West Coast with a win over Ohio State would put Indiana in a three-way tie for ninth place at 9-11 with Nebraska and Ohio State. The Buckeyes would be eliminated in the tiebreaker first, due to an inferior record against the teams it tied with, but then Indiana would lose a direct tiebreaker with Nebraska due to the December loss in Lincoln.
That would give Indiana a No. 10 seed – the best seed that would be compelled to play on day one of the Big Ten Tournament. Indiana would play No. 15 seed Minnesota in the 6 p.m. ET tipoff on Wednesday. The winner would face No. 7 Oregon on Thursday and the winner of that game would advance to play No. 2 seed Michigan on Friday.
