Latest ESPN Bracketology gives Alabama basketball a brutal March Madness draw
It’s the time of the year where bracket projections are extremely fluid as conference tournaments are in full swing and auto-bids to the NCAA Tournament are being handed out left and right. So you can’t put too much stock in them right now because there are too many games to be played.
But they are fun to look at. Following Tuesday’s games, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi released his updated Bracketology on ESPN, something he will do every day the rest of the week leading up to Sunday’s reveal.
The draw for Alabama basketball couldn’t have been much worse.
A brutal projected path for Alabama basketball in the NCAA Tournament
Lunardi still has Alabama as the top 2-seed, putting them in the Midwest Region and opening the NCAA Tournament in Lexington, Kentucky. That would be a favorable location and allow Crimson Tide fans to travel to the opening round games.
Alabama’s projected 1st round opponent is SoCon champion Wofford, a team that finished sixth in the conference during the regular season and made a run to win the conference tournament. It is March, after all.
On Tuesday, we published a list of five teams Alabama would prefer to miss in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. No. 1 on that list was Gonzaga, a team that KenPom views as one of the 10 best in the country.
Lunardi had Gonzaga projected as an 8-seed, but the Bulldogs beat St. Mary’s on Tuesday night to win the WCC Tournament. That moved them up a seed line, and put them directly in the Crimson Tide’s path as the 7-seed in the Midwest region.
Gonzaga doesn’t have a ton of quality wins, but they rank 9th in KenPom this year. They’ve got a coach who has been there and done that in the tournament in Mark Few and a talented roster full of guys with a plethora of experience. All of the top-seeded teams will be hoping to avoid them in the 2nd round.
The No. 2 team on the list of teams to avoid was Kansas, which happens to be the 6-seed in Alabama’s region and could be waiting in the Sweet 16 if the Crimson Tide got past Gonzaga. Or, it would likely be Rick Pitino and 3-seeded St. John’s. The Red Storm play defense as good as anyone in the country and would undoubtedly frustrate Alabama’s guards and make things difficult for Nate Oats and his team.
Getting past Gonzaga and either St. John’s/Kansas to get to the Elite 8 would take a big effort from the Tide. Waiting for them in the Regional Final would likely be 1-seeded Houston. It would be asking a lot to endure the physicality of St. John’s and Houston in back-to-back games to get back to the Final Four.
The NCAA Tournament is all about draws. Lunardi’s latest projection would be about as bad as it gets for Alabama.
