Previewing the five teams standing between Alabama Basketball and the Elite Eight
Technically, there are seven teams and Alabama Basketball in half of the East Region bracket. Only five are detailed below because Alabama will defeat Robert Morris and Wisconsin is a heavy favorite over Montana.
After dispensing with the Robert Morris Colonials, the Alabama Crimson Tide will play the winner of St. Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt. St. Mary’s is favored over the Commodores, but Vandy could pull off an upset
St. Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt
The Gaels are 28-5, with a SOS of No. 90. Their top wins over Gonzaga in the regular season. The Zags beat St. Mary’s in the WCC Tournament. Ken Pomeroy has the Gaels ranked No. 22. Evan Miyakawa gives them a 23.2% chance to advance to the Sweet 16. Only two NCAA Tournament teams play at a slower pace than St. Mary’s. Ken Pomeroy has them ranked as the No. 8 defensive team in college basketball and No. 56 offensively. St Mary’s Quad 1 record is 4-3.
Vanderbilt is 20-12, with a SOS of No. 33. Vandy has good wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Missouri. They are ranked No. 49 by KPom, and Miya gives them just a 3.8% chance to advance to the Sweet 16. Pomeroy ranks them No. 30 offensively and No. 83 defensively. Vandy’s Quad 1 record is 5-9.
St. Mary’s with their outstanding defense is the bigger threat to Alabama in the Second Round. The Gaels are also the No. 1 team in Div. 1 in Rebound Margin. In order to use tempo as advantage against St. Mary’s the Crimson Tide would have to rebound well. Alabama should have too much talent for St. Mary’s for the game to be close.
BYU vs. VCU
BYU is 24-9, with a SOS of No. 51. They have good wins over Iowa State (2), Baylor, and Kansas, plus a regular-season split with Arizona. They are ranked No. 24 by KPom with a No. 11 offense and No. 68 defense. Miya’s projection is a 22.6% probability of making the Sweet 16. BYU’s Quad 1 record is 8-7.
VCU is 28-6, with a SOS of No. 123. The Rams best win is over Colorado State. They are ranked No. 30 by KPom, with a No. 23 ranked defense and No. 41 ranked offense. Miya’s projection gives VCU a 23.8% chance to make the Sweet 16. VCU’s Quad 1 record is 2-1.
Both teams like to shoot threes, but the Cougars are consistently better at making their long range shots. The BYU pick-and-roll offense is efficient and the Cougars are hot, having won 9-of-10. VCU is an experienced team led by three seniors. The game should be close, but Alabama has struggled with pick-and-roll defense, making BYU the tougher for for a Second Round game.
Alabama Basketball vs. Wisconsin in Sweet 16
There is a small chance that Montana, aided by Denver’s altitude can upset the Badgers. Wisconsin, ranked No. 13 by KPom should win over No. 157 ranked Montana. The badgers will need to make their threes. In the Big Ten Tournament Championship loss to Michigan, Wisconsin’s key shotmaker, John Tonje was 1-for-14. His season shooting stats are 53% from two , and 35% from three. Five of the Badgers top seven players are seniors.
Pomeroy has the 26-9 Badgers with the No. 13 offense and No. 27 defense. Miya gives them a 53.3% probability of making the Sweet 16 and a 22.9% probability to make the Elite Eight.
Wisconsin’s Quad 1 record is 8-8, compared to Alabama’s 11-8. If the Sweet 16 matchup happens, Bama Hammer will do deeper dives into the Badgers. Until then, a broad-stroke projection is a Crimson Tide win.
