ESPN BPI Updates BYU’s Chances to Make an Even Deeper Run in the NCAA Tournament
On Saturday, the BYU basketball program advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since Jimmer Fredette carried the Cougars to the Sweet 16 in 2011. It will be just the third Sweet 16 appearance in program history for BYU. The Cougars are set to face the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Sweet 16 for a spot in the Elite.
The winner of BYU-Alabama will advance to take on the winner of Duke-Arizona. Now that BYU’s deep into the NCAA Tournament, we’ll revisit the numbers behind BYU’s chances to make an even deeper run in the NCAA Tournament.
Can BYU Make a Deeper NCAA Tournament Run?
First things first, BYU needs to survive the Sweet 16. That alone would make this postseason tied for the most successful in program history. BPI gives BYU a 35.3% chance to beat Alabama and advance to the Elite Eight.
KenPom is slightly less optimistic about BYU’s chances to pull off the upset in the Sweet 16. KenPom gives BYU a 32% chance to beat Alabama.
The Elite Eight
Should BYU advance past the Sweet 16, they will play the winner of Duke-Alabama in the Elite Eight. KenPom would favor Duke over BYU by 14-15 points.
If Arizona pulls off the upset and advances to the Elite Eight, KenPom would predict a close game between Arizona and BYU.
The Final Four
ESPN BPI gives BYU a 7.5% chance to advance to the Final Four. Of the four teams in BYU’s region that could play in the Final Four, Duke has the best chance to advance to win the region.
- Duke – 58.8%
- Alabama – 21.1%
- Arizona – 12.6%
- BYU – 7.5%
Beyond the Final Four
ESPN BPI gives BYU an 2.1% chance to make the championship game and 0.7% chance to win the national title.
