Learn the Enemy: why Alabama is such a dangerous Sweet 16 opponent for BYU

BYU is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since the days of Jimmer, and they face a formidable opponent in Alabama. The Crimson Tide are led by AP First Team All-American Mark Sears. Sears is averaging 18.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game. Alabama has quite a bit of firepower surrounding Sears as well.

Alabama is probably the most statistically similar team they have played in the tournament. Using KenPom rankings, we can see that BYU has an adjusted offensive rating of 124.2 (9th in the country), and Alabama is rated at 126.7 (4th in the country). Both of these teams love to shoot the ball, and shoot a lot from deep. Alabama is 14th in the nation with 29.2 three-point attempts per game, while BYU is slotted in at 24th with 28.5 attempts per game.

Is this cause to worry for the Cougars? I certainly think it is something they will have to adjust to.

BYU played one game against a team with a somewhat similar profile this season, Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have an adjusted offensive rating of 125.4, just behind Alabama at 5th in the nation. They also shoot 27.2 three-pointers per game. BYU fell in a 72-67 contest against the Red Raiders on January 7th. In that game, Tech shot 10-28 from beyond the arc, while BYU shot just 5-23.

If there is a repeat of those shooting performances, or anything close, BYU will be sent packing back to Provo.

The other challenge that Alabama provides for BYU is their pace of play. The Tide are first in the country in pace of play and possessions per game. BYU hasn’t played a single other team in the top 30, and only one in the top 50. That team was Oklahoma State, who BYU destroyed, but we cannot compare Oklahoma State to a caliber of team as Alabama.

BYU is known for slowing down the game, and dominating in the half-court. BYU can be found at 145th in possessions per game, just about middle of the pack. This game may require quite an adjustment for the Cougars. In my opinion, they should try and control the pace of the game even more and take Alabama out of their game.

It can be seen often that when one team plays fast, the other team tries to match that pace of play. BYU cannot do that during this game, otherwise Alabama will take advantage of their speed and length in transition. BYU needs to slow the game down and control the pace. This will help keep Alabama’s potent offense at bay.

Alabama is the toughest test that BYU has faced so far in the tournament, and it will take a herculean effort to take down the tide, but it will sure be a fun one. This may the first game where both teams eclipse 100 points.