Texas vs. South Carolina Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Final Four
For the fourth time in the 2024-25 season, Texas and South Carolina will face off – this time with a trip to the national title game on the line.
It doesn’t get much better than that.
Dawn Staley’s South Carolina Gamecocks are hoping to advance to defend their national title, but SEC Player of the Year Madison Booker and the Longhorns stand in the way. This season, South Carolina took two meetings against Texas by double digits, including the SEC title game.
Still, the Longhorns ended up with a No. 1 seed, and they have looked much more dominant than Staley’s group in the NCAA Tournament – especially in the last two rounds.
Oddsmakes have set the Gamecocks as the favorite in this matchup, but can we trust Staley’s group to cover the spread?
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this Final Four matchup between two SEC powerhouses.
Texas vs. South Carolina Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Spread
- Texas +4.5 (-110)
- South Carolina -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Texas: +172
- South Carolina: -215
Total
- 127.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Texas vs. South Carolina How to Watch
- Date: Friday, April 4
- Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
- Venue: Amalie Arena
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Texas record: 35-3
- South Carolina record: 34-3
Texas vs. South Carolina Key Players to Watch
Texas
Madison Booker: So far in the NCAA Tournament, Booker has 17 or more points in every game, and she dropped 18 against TCU in the Elite 8 to lead her team to a win. It’s worth noting that in the losses to South Carolina, Booker scored seven and 10 points in those games. She had 20 in the win at home. The SEC Player of the Year is only a sophomore, and this could be her coming out party if she leads the Longhorns to the national title game.
South Carolina
MiLaysia Fulwiley: South Carolina doesn’t rely on any one player night-to-night, but guard MiLaysia Fulwiley has put together some big games in the NCAA Tournament, including a 23-point showing in the Sweet 16. Even though the sophomore guard comes off the bench, she can alter a game quickly with her speed and defensive prowess (averaging 1.6 steals per game).
Texas vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick
Call me crazy, but I’m not sold on Dawn Staley’s team winning this game easily in the Final Four.
The Gamecocks were nearly upset in the Sweet 16 by Maryland before turning them over a ton of times in the final minutes, and then they only won by four points in the Elite 8 against Duke.
Meanwhile, Texas beat a frisky Tennessee team by eight in the Sweet 16 before turning in a dominant defensive performance in a double-digit win in the Elite 8 over TCU.
The Longhorns allow less than four made 3-pointers per game, which makes up for the fact that they don’t make many 3s themselves and are 234th in the country in 3-point percentage. Ultimately, a lot of this game rides on Booker, as she scored 10 and seven points in the losses to South Carolina this season.
If she doesn’t show up, Texas could be in trouble.
However, the Gamecocks aren’t nearly as dominant as previous seasons, even though they are a strong defensive team – ranking fifth in the country in opponent field goal percentage.
I ultimately think this game will turn into a bit of a slugfest – South Carolina’s games have been so far in the NCAA Tournament – and I believe that benefits the Longhorns and their chances to cover.
Texas’ lack of 3-point shooting makes it tougher for it to compete in an uptempo game, but it dominated a low-scoring affair against TCU in the Elite 8. Since these teams have seen each other so many times, I wouldn’t be shocked if this one isn’t decided until the final possessions.
Plus, South Carolina hasn’t won by more than four points since the Round of 32.
Pick: Texas +4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
