Ohio State vs. Tennessee score prediction by expert football model

Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for a historic first round College Football Playoff game as Ohio State welcomes Tennessee, from an expert football model that picks winners.

Ohio State plays college football’s top-ranked defense and the nation’s No. 10 scoring offense, averaging nearly 38 points per game, but is dealing with some notable injuries and coming off a heartbreaking loss to rival Michigan, its fourth straight in the series despite being big favorites.

Tennessee plays on the road in the first round after losses to Arkansas and Georgia, but boasts the fourth-ranked total and scoring defense in the country, and is top 10 running the football with 232 yards per game on average.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Vols pay a postseason visit to the Buckeyes?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Ohio State and Tennessee compare in this first round College Football Playoff game.

Ohio State vs. Tennessee score prediction

The projection models are taking the Buckeyes at home against the Volunteers in his historic postseason matchup, but expect a close game.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Tennessee by a projected score of 26 to 20 and will win the game by an expected margin of 5.6 points in the process.

The model gives the Buckeyes a 64 percent chance of victory against the Vols in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

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Ohio State vs. Tennessee odds, how to pick the game

Ohio State is a 7.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -265 and for Tennessee at +215 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

• Tennessee +7.5
• Ohio State to win -265
• Bet under 46.5 points

That would put you in a pretty strong majority of bettors, most of whom expect the Vols to make this interesting, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee is getting nearly 7 in 10 bets — 68 percent of them — to either win the game outright or to keep the margin to a touchdown or less in defeat.

The other 32 percent of wagers project Ohio State will cover the spread and advance to the quarterfinal round.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models expect the Buckeyes to get past the Vols.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction system that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Ohio State is the favorite in the matchup at home on the index, coming out on top in the majority 65.4 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Tennessee as the presumptive winner in the remaining 34.6 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

It looks like the computers favor the Buckeyes over the Volunteers by about a touchdown after going through all its simulations of the game.

Ohio State is projected to be 6.6 points better than Tennessee on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More … Ohio State vs. Tennessee football prediction: What the analytics say

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College Football Playoff bracket

No. 12 Clemson at
No. 5 Texas

Winner plays No. 4 Arizona State

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No. 11 SMU at
No. 6 Penn State

Winner plays No. 3 Boise State

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No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Notre Dame

Winner plays No. 2 Georgia

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No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State

Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

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College Football Playoff rankings

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Clemson
17. BYU
18. Iowa State
19. Missouri
20. Illinois
21. Syracuse
22. Army
23. Colorado
24. UNLV
25. Memphis

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How to watch Tennessee vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Dec. 21
Where: Columbus, Ohio

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC, ESPN networks