ESPN analyst predicts Commanders to make a major offseason mistake that’s really easy to avoid.
The Washington Commanders are entering an offseason in which they have the exact infrastructure to make some big moves in both free agency and the draft.
When specifically talking free agency, Washington currently has more than $68.8 million in effective cap space (the amount of money in hand after factoring in the projected cost of the 2025 draft class), which is more than enough to both re-sign/extend in-house guys and bring guys in top free agents from the outside.
One of the Commanders’ top offseason needs is a legit No. 2 option opposite star wideout Terry McLaurin. Not only would another passing threat take pressure off McLaurin, it would also help Jayden Daniels’ development. Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, and others did a pretty solid job in 2024, but I don’t think any of them hold true No. 2 potential.
There should be some solid names in the free agency pool this year and the biggest name is Tee Higgins. And he wouldn’t just be a No. 2 – he’d give the Commanders two No. 1 options that only a couple other teams have.
The Commanders could certainly snag Higgins if the Bengals let him test the market. It’s a pairing that would make a lot of sense, too. However, there’s one aspect that would turn the hypothetical from logical to a mistake: money.
It’s been reported that Higgins could see a payday north of $30 million per year, which is already a mistake in itself. ESPN analyst Benjamin Solak took it a step further when he recently predicted the Commanders would sign Higgins to a deal paying him $33 million per year:
Big prediction for the offseason: Rightfully in win-now mode with Daniels’ rookie contract ticking away, the Commanders will outspend everyone in the Tee Higgins sweepstakes and bring him to Washington. Higgins can win in the Kliff Kingsbury offense in a DeAndre Hopkins-like role and pairs perfectly with Daniels’ downfield tendencies. It’ll only cost, oh, $33 million per year to get him in the building. – Benjamin Solak, ESPN
Obviously, that kind of price tag would be the result of a bidding war, but the point still stands that Higgins is going to be very expensive and the Commanders need to avoid falling into said war at all costs.
Higgins is nowhere close to being worth $33 million per year and there are two major reasons why
For starters, Higgins has eclipsed 1,000-yards just twice in his first five seasons and he barely got over the marks with 1,091-yards in 2021 and 1,024-yards in 2022. Since he entered the league in 2020, Higgins ranks 27th in receptions (330), 18th in receiving yards (4,595), and t-14th in receiving touchdowns (34) among all receivers, including tight ends, in the NFL. He’s also 23rd in receiving yards per game (65.5) and t-145th in catch percentage (64.5%) among said players.
Guys like Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, and Jakobi Meyers have more receptions than him and guys like Tyler Lockett, Keenan Allen, and Amari Cooper all have more receiving yards. All of those names are solid players, but none of them are getting paid even close to $33 million, hell even $30 million per year.
A $33 million-per-year deal would make Higgins the NFL’s third-highest paid receiver in terms of average value. An AAV of $30 million per year would tie him for fifth-highest out of all wideouts.
That’s simply too much for his resume and while he boasts a WR1 skillset, he’s yet to actually show he can play at that level consistently and that’s the key part.
And the main reason why he’s yet to establish consistency is the other big reason why the Commanders would be mistaken to do this deal – and that’s injuries.
Higgins has dealt with nagging injuries throughout his career and they’ve recently cost him 10 games over the last two seasons. He was also inactive for three games in 2021 and he’s played in 50% or less of five games since 2020 due to leaving early with an injury.
A player has to be on the field as much as possible if they’re making that much, plain and simple. A.J. Brown falls into this category, but he has the elite production that Higgins is missing to make up for it. All around, Higgins’ resume just doesn’t stack up when placed into proper context.
There are plenty of other viable options for the Commanders that make more sense
For starters, the Commanders already have a No. 1 guy in McLaurin, who’s as legit as they come. So they’re not desperate for a guy like Higgins, to begin with.
There are multiple, better routes to take than paying Higgins that much money. Simply drafting a guy like Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka, who has a shot to be there at No. 29, and re-signing Brown and O.Z. for depth makes a lot of sense. The Commanders can then use some of the money saved in this vein to extend McLaurin who is entering the last year of his deal.
Names like Brandin Cooks, Cooper, and Darius Slayton are set to become free agents. All three of them would be solid No. 2 options and all bring their own unique talents to the table. They’d all be very affordable, as well, and nowhere near close to the $30-$33 million per year range.
So what is the right number for a Higgins-Commanders pairing?
The logical price tag for Higgins would be within the range of $24-$28 million per year. That would put him anywhere in-between Nos. 8-13 in terms of AAV. He’d be in the mix with guys like D.K. Metcalf, Nico Collins, Davante Adams, D.J. Moore and a few others, which makes a lot more sense than names like Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and a couple others.
Anything above that should be avoided. Yes, the Commanders won 12 games in 2024, but there are still plenty of holes that need to be addressed in the offseason and while a No. 2 wideout is one of the top priorities, it shouldn’t require this kind of scenario to pull off an effective move.
The Commanders should be pretty aggressive in the coming months, but they also need to be smart. This certainly wouldn’t fit the latter and it would certainly be considered “too aggressive”, as well as a mistake, if it does happen. The idea of Higgins in Washington is wonderful, but not at this price tag.
