Arizona State still has a path to 2025 NCAA Tournament
When it’s all said and done, it’s likely that 12 of Arizona State’s opponents this season will be playing in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
From nonconference matchups vs. Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, New Mexico and Florida to the gauntlet of the Big 12, the ASU men’s basketball team has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
And because of that, they’re still in the hunt for a March Madness berth
ASU in top 10 of KenPom’s ratings
According to KenPom, the Sun Devils have played the ninth-toughest schedule in the country — tougher than Duke, Kansas, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Florida.
The Sun Devils (12-13) are the only team in the top 10 of schedule strength with a sub-.500 record. And KenPom’s “luck rating” suggests ASU should have more than 12 victories. Arizona State is 3-11 in the Big 12, but that record could easily be flipped. The Sun Devils have had legitimate chances to win eight of the 11 games they’ve lost, including two overtimes games.
Arizona State’s overall KenPom ranking is No. 61, four spots better than their NCAA NET Ranking of No. 65. Those rankings — paired with the top-10 strength of schedule — suggest the Sun Devils could quickly climb into NCAA tournament contention with six or seven more quality wins.
Ohio State a good comparison for ASU
The Sun Devils need to go on a run, which is easier said than done in the Big 12. But after Saturday’s 74-70 loss to TCU, they have little margin for error. If Arizona State can go 5-1 over their final six games and win at least two games in the Big 12 tournament, they’ll have a legitimate shot to get into the NCAA tourney. That would put them at 19-15 and likely result in a NET ranking in the top 35.
Ohio State (15-11) is a good comparison for Bobby Hurley’s team. The Buckeyes have played the seventh-toughest schedule in the nation, are ranked No. 30 in the NET and are projected to be a No. 9 seed in the NCAA tournament. Looking at their remaining schedule, it’s probable the Buckeyes will be 18-13 heading into the Big Ten tournament — and in contention for a No. 9, 10 or 11 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Obviously the Sun Devils can still earn an automatic NCAA tournament berth by winning the Big 12 tournament. And if they get hot like they did in November — and they get 5-star freshman Jayden Quaintance back — watch out.
“We still here. Don’t give up on us yet,” Arizona State guard BJ Freeman said after the loss to TCU. “We’ve still got six games, then we’ve got a tournament. You guys gonna get a different change of basketball starting Tuesday.”
Here’s a look at Arizona State’s six remaining Big 12 games, with ESPN’s FPI prediction for each game.
- vs. Houston – 11.2% chance to win
- at Kansas State – 34.7% chance to win
- vs. BYU – 39.9% chance to win
- at Utah – 34.6% chance to win
- at Arizona – 9.5% chance to win
- vs. Texas Tech – 25.8% chance to win
