Three major keys to a Wisconsin basketball victory over the Oregon Ducks
The Wisconsin Badgers made a major statement with a 95-74 home win over the Illinois Fighting Illini on Tuesday. The team now turns attention towards a home matchup against the Oregon Ducks on Saturday.
The Ducks are an intriguing team. They are considered an NCAA Tournament lock, yet they are just .500 in conference play with a record of 8-8. The team has a abnormal tournament resume, with wins over top teams like Alabama and Texas A&M, plus losses to several bottom-tier Big Ten teams.
Saturday’s game isn’t crucial for either team in terms of tournament chances. It does, however, have significant seeding implications. Wisconsin is currently projected to be either a two or three seed, but could threaten for a one-seed if a lot goes right. It starts in this matchup, where the Badgers have an opportunity for another win over a solidified tournament team.
As tip-off between the Badgers and Ducks approaches, here are Wisconsin’s three keys to victory:
Wisconsin’s guards need find scoring opportunities inside
The Oregon Ducks are a guard-oriented team. While they have a talented big man in Nate Bittle, who is second on the team in points per game, they lack size around him. Guards Jackson Shelstad and Keeshawn Barthelemy are only around 6’1”, which means the Badgers have a clear size advantage over the Ducks’ backcourt. This means that Wisconsin’s star guards John Tonje, Max Klesmit, and John Blackwell should take advantage of the mismatch and try to find scoring opportunities in the painted area. Wisconsin has excelled from the free-throw line this season, so getting good looks down low could be crucial for the Badgers.
Force Oregon center Nate Bittle into foul trouble
It was mentioned before that Nate Bittle is one of Oregon’s best players and could be an issue in the paint for the Badgers. One way for Wisconsin to force him out of the game is to attack him defensively and try to get him into foul trouble. Bittle averages 2.6 personal fouls per game and has struggled with foul trouble in many of the Ducks’ losses this season. We saw Steven Crowl attack an injured Tomislav Ivisic down low in the Badgers’ game against Illinois on Tuesday night. Expect Crowl and Nolan Winter to be two focal points of this offense with both of them trying to put Bittle into foul trouble.
Defend the three well, especially on ball screens
Wisconsin has improved defensively over the course of the season. However, it still struggles at times defending ball screens. It’s been a specific issue against strong three-point shooting teams like Michigan and Maryland. John Blackwell and Max Klesmit need to close out on any looks that Jackson Shelstad and TJ Bamba get on the perimeter, as both guards are talented shooters who Wisconsin cannot afford to let get hot.
Score Prediction
Oregon isn’t an ideal matchup for Wisconsin considering it has strong shooting threats on the perimeter and a very talented big man. That being said, the Badgers shouldn’t have too much trouble in this game, as they enter the matchup with much stronger form than the Ducks. Expect this game to be close in the first half and possibly early in the second half, but I still see Wisconsin winning this one by a comfortable margin.
Final Prediction: Wisconsin 81, Oregon 69
