Surprising Arch Manning projection would reset expectations around Texas Longhorns entering 2025

The Texas Longhorns have high expectations for their program in 2025 as a return to the College Football Playoff is on the table. Head coach Steve Sarkisian had to replace several high-end veterans, but the promise of third-year quarterback Arch Manning has increased interest in the team. While Manning has only started two games, he’s arguably the top wild card in the nation.

2025 projections are being made as spring practices get underway, and one caught us by surprise. Travis Galey of Orangebloods, a Rivals site, posted his rankings of the top SEC quarterbacks for this fall. These projections were based on a myriad of factors, and there was some home-cooking in the books.

But it was notable that atop the top tier, the elite group, was Arch Manning. Galey expects Manning to outpace his competition, including Florida’s DJ Lagway and Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava.

“Manning has made all of two starts in his young career so this is obviously a projection, but one I feel pretty comfortable making. Manning has all of the traits you look for in an elite quarterback: strong arm, good size, high football IQ, strong leadership qualities…None of the questions about the Texas offense center on quarterback where Manning has shown he can both throw and run with the best,” he wrote.

Indeed, Manning looked the part as he completed 67.8% of his 90 throws for 939 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions. He added 108 yards and four scores on the ground. It also helps when Sarkisian has added such encouraging statements on Manning.

“Now that we’ve kind of embarked on the 2025 season, I just continue to see a guy that’s taken it and is really trying to really go for it,” Sarkisian said. “He just doesn’t want to leave any stone unturned. He’s working at his craft. He’s working so hard in the offseason conditioning runs. He’s now setting up those voluntary throwing sessions with the receivers during the week or on the weekend. He’s breaking the team down. All those natural things that a quarterback has to do to instill belief in his teammates, to instill belief in the staff, he’s doing it.”

Manning will indeed have the chance to rise above his peers to claim the throne. It was probably fair to project Manning over Lagway, who threw nine interceptions as a true freshman, and even guys like Garrett Nussmeier and LaNorris Sellers.

I would disagree with already ranking Alabama frosh Keelon Russell over Vandy’s Diego Pavia and certainly Iamaleava, though. And putting Iamaleava in Tier 3, “Needs to prove it,” is actually ridiculous.

That said, if Manning does emerge as the clear top dog in the SEC in his first season as a starter, then this team should go undefeated and win the National Championship. That’s even accounting for their trips to Ohio State, Florida, and Georgia.