Virginia Tech Football: Hokies Get Surprisingly High Ranking in First SP+ Rankings Of 2025
It is safe to say that Virginia Tech did not have the kind of season they were projected too in 2024. The Hokies were looked at as a possible ACC title contender and darkhorse playoff team with the returning production they had and the way they finished the 2023 season. From their opening week loss to Vanderbilt to their bowl game loss to Minnesota, it was a disappointing season for Brent Pry’s team and they have had to deal with a loss of talent in the transfer portal, as well as replacing both of their coordinators. Will the coaching turnover and new look roster get them the results they want? Only time will tell.
While there is still six months until the 2025 season, ESPN’s Bill Connelly dropped the first batch of SP+ rankings for the 2025 season. It may surprise some to know that SP+ is higher on Virginia Tech than most of the public will be. SP+ ranked Virginia Tech No. 42 to start the season, with the projected No. 49 offense, No. 43 defense, and No. 37 special teams unit.
For a refresher, here is how Connelly calculates SP+:
“I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. Combine last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on current returning production numbers, and you’re pretty far down the projections road. In fact, this factor accounts for more than 60% of the overall projection at this point.
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by both the past few years of recruiting rankings and the quality of incoming transfers, and it accounts for about 14% of the current projection.
3. Recent history. Using a chunk of information from previous seasons gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This factor accounts for a little more than 20% of the projection, and it focuses only on what happened within the past three seasons. I used to use a weighted history stretching back five years, but that’s a less effective approach now with the changes in the sport.
I will update these numbers in May and August after there have been further transfers and roster changes, and my annual preview series will begin after the May numbers are posted. But for now, let’s establish the 2025 hierarchy.”
Here is where each of Virginia Tech’s 2025 opponents ranked:
1. South Carolina- No. 16 overall
2. Vanderbilt- 54th
3. Old Dominion- 97th
4. NC State- 45th
5. Wake Forest-83rd
6. Georgia Tech-46th
7. Cal-58th
8. Louisville- 22nd
9. Florida State- 51st
10. Miami- 14th
11. Virginia- 82nd
Here is how the ACC looks in the first initial SP+ rankings:
1. Clemson (No. 11 overall)
2. Miami (No. 14)
3. SMU (No. 18)
4. Louisville (No. 22)
5. Duke (No. 39)
6. Virginia Tech (No. 42)
7. North Carolina (No. 44)
8. NC State (No. 45)
9. Georgia Tech (No. 46)
10. Florida State (No. 51)
11. Pittsburgh (No. 53)
12. Syracuse (No. 57)
13. Cal (No. 58)
14. Boston College (No. 68)
15. Virginia (No. 82)
16. Wake Forest (No. 83)
17. Stanford (No. 88)
