Wacketology: How Close is BYU basketball to a 6-seed in the NCAA Tournament
Has anyone checked on Jon Rothstein? Because THIS. IS. MARCH. This, of course, means it’s time for Wacketology to make its first appearance of the 2025 season. So grab your nitroglycerin pills and some caffeine, because it’s TIME. FOR. SPREADSHEETS.
Wacketology Overview
The NCAA tournament committee selects teams based on a combination of predictive metrics (like KenPom), results metrics (like Strength of Record) and wins and losses sorted into 4 quadrants using the NCAA’s NET rankings. This process can be a bit convoluted to the average fan, so we at BYU On SI want to simplify that using Wacketology. For the uninitiated, Wacketology is a data-driven Bracketology system that anyone can understand. Here is a basic overview.
The top 68 teams in NET are sorted based on point totals assigned to wins and losses. Four points are given for a Q1 win, three for a Q2 win, two for a Q3 win, and one for a Q4 win. Conversely, teams lose one point for a Q1 win, two for a Q2, and so on. Point totals are added and adjusted based on that teams NET ranking to calculate each teams’ Wacketology score. Wacketology scores are sorted from highest to lowest and voila. You have your projected tournament field.
Wacketology is not a substitute for Joe Lunardi or the committee itself. Many of the teams in Wacketology will receive a higher or lower seed due to a variety of factors, but it is a simple way to understand how teams resumes’ compare to one another, and which teams may be overvalued or undervalued by the committee. Now that I’ve put all of you to sleep, let’s talk BYU.
BYU’s Resume
Today, I have BYUs Wacketology score at 28.9, good enough for an 8-seed on Selection Sunday. An 8-seed lines up with Lunari, Jerry Palm and ESPN’s strength of record. BYU’s resume is a tricky one, given that the gap between teams on the 7 and 8-seed lines is small and BYU has played four games against teams that are within three spots of a quadrant cut line. For example, if Baylor, UCF, and TCU all moved up just two spots in net, BYU’s Wacketology score would shoot up to 31.5 and move BYU to a borderline 6-seed. The margins are that slim in March.
The good news is BYU is safely in the tournament and has more chances to move up than to move down. BYU has three remaining games: two in Q2 and one in Q1. If BYU wins all three, BYU would have a Wacketology score of 36.7, the same score that earned BYU a 6-seed last year. If they lose all 3, their score drops to 25.0 and BYU is likely around a 10-seed. Either way, BYU is a tournament lock. The only question is how high they climb.
Other Observations for your bracket
Auburn is the clear favorite this year. The gap between Auburn and the best 2-seed is the same as the gap between that 2-seed and an 8-seed. That is enormous. The SEC has been far and away the best conference this year with 13/16 teams either safely in the tournament or on the bubble, followed by 11 in the Big Ten and 9 in the BIG12. The ACC (5) and Big East (4) lag closer to the MWC (4) than the other power leagues.
In terms of potential Bracket Busters, mid-majors Drake and UC San Diego are projected 10-seeds in Wacketology, both at least a full seed-line above Lunardi’s projection. UC San Diego is a top 35 team in NET and Ken Pom, while Drake’s sustained success under first year head coach Ben McCollum could have chaos lovers in a state of euphoria.
