Indiana Bracketology: It Was A Good Week For The Hoosiers
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – When you’re on the NCAA Tournament bubble, you can control what you can control in terms of your own performance, but your fate is still dependent on how the teams around you fared as well.
For Indiana, it was a very profitable week. The Hoosiers won 78-62 at Washington on Saturday and defeated Penn State 83-78 last Wednesday. Those wins against lower tier Big Ten teams won’t help the Hoosiers rise up the NET rankings – the Hoosiers have moved up one spot to No. 55, but losses to either would have sent the Hoosiers tumbling.
The bigger news for Indiana was results elsewhere.
Of the 20 teams listed last week as Indiana’s competition on the bubble? Eleven of them saw their NET rankings drop. An additional team – Baylor – was added to the bubble list this week and also had its NET drop in the last week.
Only two teams – Georgia and Vanderbilt – made big leaps in the NET rankings. Most schools made incremental gains.
All of that helps Indiana. With key games at Oregon on Tuesday and at home against Ohio State on Saturday, the Hoosiers can help themselves. But if they can’t win both, Indiana will need more friendly results from the rest of college basketball to cement a NCAA Tournament berth.
The early returns are encouraging. In his bracketology released on Monday, Jerry Palm of CBS Sports had the Hoosiers firmly in the field. He had Indiana in the field as a No. 10 seed playing Saint Mary’s in Cleveland.
Here’s a look at the week that was and what will be for the bubble teams around Indiana in the NCAA Tournament hunt.
• Arkansas – The Razorbacks seemed to put themselves in decent shape with an overtime win over Texas Wednesday, but whatever good came from that was wiped out with a 72-53 loss at SEC bottom feeder South Carolina on Saturday.
The Razorbacks (19-12) dropped seven spots from last Monday’s NET to No. 47. Arkansas has key games at Vanderbilt on Tuesday and against Mississippi State on Saturday. Arkansas has to win at least one to keep itself on the right side of the bubble as the Razorbacks are 4-9 in Quad 1 games.
• Baylor – We’re adding the Bears to the bubble team list as Baylor is just 16-12. The NET is still healthy at No. 32 and Baylor has five Quad 1 wins, but Baylor needs to finish strong with games at TCU and a home game against Houston.
• Boise State – It was a big week for Boise State. An 82-65 victory over 23-win Utah State was a big resume booster, the highlight of a 2-0 week. The Broncos (20-8) had a three-place rise in the NET at No. 43. Boise State remains on the bubble with three Quad 1 wins and a 7-6 record in Quad 1-2 games.
• UC San Diego – The Tritons (24-4) are only a bubble team if it doesn’t win the Big West Conference, but they bolstered their at-large status with a 2-0 week. UC San Diego won a close one at Cal State Northridge and then blew out Cal State Fullerton at home, their 18th win by a double-digit margin. The NET rose by two spots to No. 34. Bubble teams will be praying that the Tritons win their conference tournament.
• Cincinnati – The Bearcats (17-12) had a solid win against Baylor and an expected loss at Houston. The NET ticked up four spots to No. 40, which could be helpful, but Cincinnati finishes the regular season against losing teams Kansas State and Oklahoma State, so they’ll need to win convincingly to maintain that NET.
• Drake – Drake played with fire with an overtime home win against 7-22 Missouri State and a four-point win at 10-20 Evansville, but emerged 2-0 for the week. The close wins did drop the Bulldogs’ NET ranking to No. 60. That could make a difference if Drake doesn’t win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, which begins on Thursday.
• George Mason – George Mason (22-7) was a long shot to get an at-large bid in the first place and an 85-68 loss at Duquesne was likely fatal as far as the Patriots’ hopes are concerned. The loss to the Dukes dropped George Mason’s NET nine spots in a week to No. 74.
• Georgia – It was a big week for the Bulldogs. Georgia (18-11) defeated rival Florida and won at Texas in the last week. Those are both Quad 1 wins and Georgia improved its NET by eight spots to No. 33. The Bulldogs had been listed out of the field by several bracketologists a week ago, but Georgia has joined Indiana as a team on the rise at the right time.
• Nebraska – One of the teams that Indiana needs to lose, given that they lost to them, is Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers (17-12) obliged with an 0-2 week. A home loss to Big Ten contender Michigan hurt, but a home defeat to struggling Minnesota was a huge blow.
The NET dropped three spots to No. 57 as Nebraska dropped below the Hoosiers. Nebraska has a key bubble vs. bubble game at Ohio State on Tuesday and finishes with a must-win home game against struggling Iowa.
• North Carolina – North Carolina (19-11) protected itself with a 2-0 week, though neither win was strong with victories over Florida State and Miami. The Tar Heels’ NET ranking did rise three spots to No. 42. A loss at struggling Virginia Tech or a win over rival Duke on Saturday would have a big influence on North Carolina’s NCAA Tournament fate either for the bad or the good.
• Ohio State – The Buckeyes won their only game of the week, a nice road win at Southern California, though the Buckeyes’ NET ranking dropped two spots to No. 36. Ohio State has five Quad 1 wins. Ohio State’s fate will hinge on two bubble vs. bubble games this week. Ohio State hosts Nebraska on Tuesday and plays at Indiana on Saturday.
• Oklahoma – The Sooners (17-12) are plunging in the wrong direction. Oklahoma suffered excruciating losses to Kentucky (by one point) and at Ole Miss (by three points) in the last week. The NET didn’t suffer much as the Sooners dropped two spots in the last week to No. 53, but Oklahoma is now 5-10 in Quad 1 games and trending in the wrong direction. Oklahoma still has two Quad 1 games left against Missouri and at Texas. The Sooners need to turn things around in a hurry.
• Pittsburgh – Pitt (16-13) might be done as far as at-large hopes are concerned. The Panthers had an 0-2 week with losses to Georgia Tech and Louisville. Pitt’s NET dropped four spots to No. 59 and there are no Quad 1 opportunities left.
• San Diego State – The Aztecs (19-7) beat New Mexico in a key conference game to cap a 2-0 week. The Aztecs’ NET dropped a spot to No. 50. San Diego State has four Quad 1 wins and is solidly on the right side of the bubble. There are no remaining Quad 1 games left.
• SMU – The Mustangs (21-8) went 1-1 on a West Coast trip in which it likely needed to go 2-0. The NET dropped two spots to No. 41, but there’s not much there on the resume. SMU does not have a single Quad 1 win.
• Texas – The Longhorns (16-13) had a bad week with losses at Arkansas and at home against Georgia. The NET plunged eight spots to No. 46 in the span of a week. Texas is 4-9 against Quad 1 and just 6-13 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. Texas might need to sweep its remaining regular season games at Mississippi State and against Oklahoma to have a chance.
• Vanderbilt – In the jockeying among SEC teams, Vanderbilt (20-9) had a good week at 2-0. Both were quality wins as the Commodores won at Texas A&M and at home against Missouri. Both wins provided badly needed Quad 1 wins for Vanderbilt as the Commodores are now 5-8 in Quad 1 games and 9-9 combined in Quad 1-2 games.
Vanderbilt’s NET ranking rose six spots to No. 37 in the last week. Vanderbilt has key games against Arkansas and at Georgia in the final week of the regular season.
• Virginia Commonwealth – While fellow Atlantic 10 member George Mason suffered a very damaging loss, VCU (23-5) protected itself with a 2-0 week. While VCU leads the A-10, its NET ranking rose two spots in a week to No. 29. The Rams should be a bid stealer if they fall in the A-10 Tournament, though they don’t have a Quad 1 win.
• Wake Forest – Like fellow ACC bubble teams Pitt and SMU, Wake Forest needed a perfect week, but went 1-1. The loss was a damaging home defeat against 14-15 Virginia. The win was a three-point home victory over 12-17 Notre Dame. The NET dropped five spots to No. 68. Wake Forest plays Duke on Monday – the last chance to get another marquee win.
• West Virginia – The Mountaineers are beat up and hanging up by a thread to stay in NCAA Tournament consideration. West Virginia (17-12) beat TCU at home, but had a 21-point loss at BYU in the last week. The NET stayed the same at No. 48, but West Virginia can ill afford any more losses.
• Xavier – It was a good week for Xavier. A 2-0 week included a home win over Creighton. The NET rose four spots to No. 49 as the Musketeers positioned themselves to be on the right side of the bubble. Two winnable games remain in the regular season.
