Indiana Bracketology: Eyes Can’t Be Taken Off NCAA Tournament Bubble Just Yet
Indiana’s 66-60 victory over Ohio State was a necessary triumph in the Hoosiers’ late charge to make the NCAA Tournament.
The Hoosiers have been listed in the NCAA Tournament fields of most bracketologists. In his Sunday night update, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had Indiana as a No. 11 seed playing No. 6 seed Saint Mary’s at Providence, R.I.
Lunardi also had Indiana with one of the last byes. A loss to Oregon in Thursday’s first round of the Big Ten Tournament would make the Hoosiers vulnerable to other teams on the bubble who could make a run.
Indiana’s resume isn’t bulletproof. The Hoosiers are 4-12 in Quad 1 games. The NET has risen, but is still not in the top 50. The Hoosiers are ranked No. 52 entering Monday.
A victory over Oregon should alleviate any worries about Indiana’s NCAA Tournament fate, but until then? Competition on the bubble must be monitored.
Here’s a look at the week that was and what will be for the bubble teams around Indiana in the NCAA Tournament hunt.
• Arkansas – The Razorbacks (21-12) helped themselves in wins at Vanderbilt and at home against Mississippi State – both Quad 1 wins. Arkansas has a SEC Tournament first round game against last-place South Carolina that could trip them up, but with a NET up eight spots to No. 39? John Calipari seems safe to make the field if they avoid the cartoon anvil against the Gamecocks.
• Baylor – Baylor (17-13) had an interesting week. A win at TCU helped, but it was not a Quad 1 victory. The Bears then lost to Houston, but only by four points. The NET is healthy at No. 33 and Baylor avoided the early round of the Big 12 Tournament. Baylor is likely safe.
• Boise State – The Broncos (21-9) went 1-1 during the week and their loss may have opened the door for another bubble team. Boise State lost at home to Colorado State. The NET is solid at No. 45, but a 2-5 Quad 1 record isn’t convincing. A win against fellow bubble team San Diego State in the Mountain West Tournament might be a must.
• UC Irvine – The Anteaters (27-5) are a long shot, but the Big West is one mid-major league that could get two teams in. UC Irvine doesn’t have anywhere near as strong a case for an at-large at UC San Diego does. The Anteaters are No. 68 in the NET, though they are 4-3 in Quad 1-2 games, including a victory over UC San Diego.
• UC San Diego – The Tritons keep on rolling, now up to 13 wins in a row. If UC San Diego wins the Big West Tournament, it has no worries, but if it doesn’t? It gets dicey. The Tritons are 2-1 in Quad 1 games and have a healthy NET of No. 35, but the committee has not been friendly to mid-major at-large candidates in recent seasons.
• Cincinnati – The Bearcats (17-14) can be crossed off the at-large list. Losses to non-NCAA Tournament teams Kansas State and Oklahoma State were mortal blows. The NET is at No. 50, but Cincinnati is just 1-11 in Quad 1 games.
• Colorado State – The Rams have won seven straight games, including a win at bubble team Boise State. Colorado State still needs to win more games at the Mountain West Tournament, but the NET is a No. 55, albeit with just one Quad 1 victory.
• Dayton – The Flyers (22-9) added themselves to the list with four straight wins, including an eye-catching victory at Atlantic 10 co-champion Virginia Commonwealth on Friday. The Flyers have a weak NET ranking at No. 66, but Dayton has three Quad 1 wins and are 7-8 in Quad 1-2 games. Other bubble teams have lesser credentials.
• Drake – Drake is no longer of concern. The Bulldogs won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on Sunday. They’re in the field without stealing a bid.
• Georgia – Georgia was firmly on the bubble two weeks ago, but four straight wins – two of them Quad 1 victories – have really removed any doubt of the Bulldogs’ credentials. Georgia’s NET is up to 30 and they’re 9-11 against Quads 1-2.
• Nebraska – The Cornhuskers (17-14) had a disastrous week. The showed gumption in a crazy 116-114 double overtime loss at fellow bubble school Ohio State, but with a Big Ten Tournament bid on the line, the Cornhuskers limply melted away in an 83-68 home loss to the Hawkeyes. Nebraska’s at-large hopes are done, but some might say it’s an indictment of how the NCAA chooses the field in that many bracketologists still have Nebraska among one of the last teams out of the field.
• North Carolina – The Tar Heels (20-12) went 1-1 during the week, but didn’t get the win it needed. A victory over Duke on Saturday might have paved the way for North Carolina, but that was not in the cards. Somehow, North Carolina’s NET is No. 40 with a 1-11 Quad 1 record. North Carolina will not start in the ACC Tournament until day two. It likely needs at least one win to get in the field.
• Ohio State – Forever confounding, Ohio State (17-14) had a 116-114 double overtime home win over Nebraska. The Buckeyes then led for much of Saturday’s game at Indiana before they melted down the stretch in a 66-60 loss. Ohio State has six Quad 1 wins and a healthy NET at No. 36, but the Buckeyes also have 11 Quad 1 losses. They are the bubbliest of teams.
• Oklahoma – Oklahoma (19-12) was flagging badly, but the Sooners won two games this week – including a win against high-flying Missouri and a key bubble clash at Texas. The NET is up seven spots to No. 46. A tricky SEC Tournament game against Georgia awaits, but the Sooners did themselves a world of good at the last minute.
• San Diego State – Bad losses are killers at this time of the season, and the Aztecs (20-8) suffered one with a defeat at mediocre UNLV. The NET is 51 and San Diego State has three Quad 1 wins, but it needs to beat Boise State in a Mountain West Tournament bubble showdown.
• SMU – The Mustangs (22-9) are only in the at-large conversation by dint of their No. 49 NET ranking. SMU went 1-1 in the last week with a victory over a poor Syracuse team and a loss at Florida State. With no Quad 1 wins, SMU is likely out of the picture.
• Texas – The Longhorns (17-14) are trending in the wrong direction. A win at Mississippi State was helpful Tuesday, but then Texas followed that up with a home loss to Oklahoma. Texas has lost four of five and has a difficult SEC Tournament game against Vanderbilt. The Longhorns have a hood NET at No. 42, but a win over the Commodores is likely necessary to make the field.
• Vanderbilt – One week after an encouraging 2-0 performance, the Commodores (20-11) went 0-2 to put themselves back into jeopardy of missing the field. Losses were to fellow bubble teams Arkansas and Georgia. The NET is at No. 43, which isn’t bad, but a first round SEC Tournament game against Texas might be a NCAA Tournament elimination contest.
• Virginia Commonwealth – VCU had seemingly avoided all potholes … right until the end. A home loss to Dayton hurts. The Rams (24-6) have a good NET at No. 31 and are 2-1 in Quad 1 games, but that loss to Dayton came at a poor time. VCU might need to win at least one game in the A-10 Tournament to have a shot.
• Wake Forest – The Demon Deacons (21-10) went 1-1 with the loss at Duke. The NET is weak at No. 68 and Wake Forest is 2-7 in Quad 1 games. Further work will need to be done in the ACC Tournament to solidify Wake Forest’s NCAA Tournament credentials.
• West Virginia – West Virginia (19-12) had a big week. The Mountaineers went 2-0 with a win at Utah and a home win against Central Florida. West Virginia’s NET is at No. 47, but it has six Quad 1 wins, a commodity many other bubble teams do not have.
• Xavier – The Musketeers (21-10) might not have further worries. Xavier has won seven in a row. Wins at Butler and against Providence in the last week didn’t provide more quality wins, but the Musketeers weren’t tripped up either. The one thing that still holds Xavier back is a 1-8 Quad 1 record. The NET has risen to No. 44 and that might be enough. If Xavier beats Marquette in the Big East Tournament, the Musketeers should be in.
