3 bold predictions for Michigan basketball against Nebraska

Friday night against Michigan State, Michigan basketball failed to pass the test. The Spartans were more physical and flat out, looked like they wanted it more.

The Spartans executed better, shot the ball better, rebounded better, and now control the Big Ten title race.

Michigan basketball isn’t out of it though, not by a long shot. Michigan trails by 0.5 games. The Wolverines could make that up on Monday night with a win over Nebraska, a team that’s 17-10 and fighting for its NCAA tournament life.

It’s a must-win game for Michigan, just like it’s a must-win game for Nebraska, which enters as a 1.5-point favorite. The Wolverines have been stellar on the road, winning at Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin, UCLA, and USC.

Can Michigan basketball do it again? Here are three bold predictions.

Danny Wolf flirts with a triple-double

I don’t think Danny Wolf will get a triple-double, but after he had eight assists against Michigan State, it’s not that crazy. Heck, he was two assists and three rebounds away Friday. Not only is Wolf a talented scorer and creator, he’s also one of the best rebounders in the Big Ten.

One thing about Nebraska is that they do their best to force teams away from the rim. It leads to lots of 3-point attempts and plenty of catch-and-shoot 3-pointers (offensive rebounds too). The Wolverines have struggled from 3-point range and shot just 23 percent from deep against MSU.

That was the difference in the game. Michigan dominated the 2-point game but the Spartans owned the 3-point line and got to the line more. I think Wolf will score around 15 points and grab 10 rebounds, but he will also dish out 6-7 assists on a night where Michigan shoots the ball much better from 3-point range, which is a bold prediction all by itself.

Some of that is just the law of averages. Michigan can’t shoot as poorly as it did against Michigan State and with the focus on the interior players, the Wolverines will get lots of open looks, which will lead to more assists for Wolf than usual.

My other hope is that Danny gets to play the role as stretch four with Nebraska’s focus on protecting the rim.

20-point game from Vlad Goldin

Nebraska has 7-footer Braxton Meah. He’s a decent rim protector and defender. Berke Büyüktuncel could also return tonight. He’s another 7-footer but has more ball skills, is more athletic, and can stretch the floor from 3-point range.

Nebraska will work to get the ball out of Vlad Goldin’s hands, and for good reason considering Nebraska is 12th in the Big Ten in 2-point percentage defense.

The problem for Nebraska is that if Berke isn’t available, it’s hard to see how they are going to defend Wolf. Surely, Goldin will see plenty of doubles too. Nebraska will try to double-down aggressively for steals and to get him to the pass the ball out.

So the shot attempts might be limited. Goldin might struggle to reach 10, but he’s going to convert 70 percent or better from the field. I also expect a few put backs on offensive rebounds so another 20-point effort won’t shock me.

Expect Goldin to get out in transition too. Anytime Michigan can push the tempo, it should. He’ll have to work for attempts, but he’ll do enough with them to score 20 points for the seventh time this season.

3-point shooting will win or lose the game

Nebraska is going to give up 3-point attempts. That’s just the way the Huskers defense is focused. Michigan is going to have to knock some down.

If the Wolverines shoot 25 percent tonight from 3-point range, Nebraska is going to win. Tre Donaldson, Wolf, Will Tschetter, Nimari Burnett, and Rubin Jones have to knock down some shots.

Juwan Gary and Brice Williams are each capable of scoring over 20. Williams has been playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten. Connor Essegian is another weapon for the Huskers but they are thin too.

Michigan might not need to win the 3-point battle to win this game, but the Wolverines need to at least shoot above 30 percent or they will lose two in a row.

Prediction: Michigan 76, Nebraska 71

I’m not super confident that Michigan will sort out its shooting woes, but Nebraska doesn’t have the defense inside to hang with the Wolverines and I think the shooting will be good enough for U-M to hang in the Big Ten title race.